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Los Angeles
The City of Angels has been described as the poster
child for how a lack of new housing near employment
centers can hurt an economy. Affordable housing has
been an issue in the market for years. It's ranked as
one of the least affordable places in the country to
live, with housing prices consuming 91 percent of income,
according to statistics from John Burns Real Estate
Consulting. The median price of an existing single-family
home was $568,000 at the end of 2005, the National Association
of Realtors reports. Plus, job growth is virtually flat.
Together, it's cause for real estate market consultant
Gollis to predict that the prices for California coastal
markets are topping out in single-family homes. Fortune
predicts a drop-off of nearly 8 percent in housing prices
in the next two years, putting it in 95th out of 100
markets for growth.
Naples, Fla. At 72 percent, Naples is No. 2 on Local
Market Monitor's list of overvalued markets in the country
(Santa Barbara-Santa Maria, Calif., is No. 1 at 86 percent
overvalued). In actual pricing, it outpaces other Florida
markets by a good $100,000 margin. Plus, there is an
abundance of more affordably priced options for buyers
within a short driving distance. It is no understatement
that entire cities are being built nearby. "The
markets that are the most overvalued are the ones at
greatest risk of a substantial correction," Winzer
says. "Naples is at the top of that."
Miami/Fort Lauderdale,
Fla. Rapid, dramatic price increases over the
past two years -- and an extraordinary amount of new
products being built in the condo market -- is the reason
many real estate market analysts think this market just
can't sustain much more in terms of price increases.
The market probably won't decline, they say, because
the region remains attractive to South American and
European buyers, but there just isn't sufficient demand
to absorb the entire available inventory. Plus, according
to NAR research, affordability is an issue in the market,
calling the home price to income ratio "unfavorable."
Edison and Newark,
N.J. As far as the real estate analysts are concerned,
these two cities have pretty big targets on them for
a decline in appreciation. John Burns Real Estate Consulting
ranks Edison seventh -- ahead of Los Angeles, Miami
and Washington, D.C., -- as a market facing a potential
housing bubble. It gives Newark an F on its local market
grading scale, attributable largely to the loss of several
thousand jobs and the highest housing-cost-to-income
percentage in the state's metro markets. Fortune predicts
a very modest 1.2 percent gain in housing appreciation
this year for Edison that would be wiped out in 2007
by a loss of 2.9 percent. The situation is similar in
Newark, where Fortune suggests a 1.5 percent increase
this year will be canceled out by a 1.8 percent loss
the following year.
Nassau/Suffolk, N.Y. Otherwise known as Long Island,
this market is No. 2 in the country on real estate consultant
John Burns' list of locations facing a potential housing
bubble. (Modesto, Calif., has the top spot.) Similarly,
Fortune predicts a loss of about 6 percent in housing
values over the next two years.
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