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Mortgage Rate Trend Index   This week: July 30 - Aug. 5
  Bankrate surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of  
 mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days. 

Rate Trend Index

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (July 30 - Aug. 5) the experts say: It's a tossup, basically.

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July 30 - Aug. 5

This week, 31 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 38 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

  Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts
Experts' comments Panel
Rates are under 5 percent. Purchase volume is tepid. Refinance activity has fallen off of a cliff with barely a new borrower in sight. President Barack Obama will have to huddle up with Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner to get the mortgage mother lode going again.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.

We should see a technically induced dip in two to three weeks. Watch for it. Lock when it happens and be thankful.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco

While the Schiller Index and the durable goods reports may be sending mixed messages about the state of the economy, we still have to consider unemployment and gross domestic product figures which are coming this week. I think we might see a short term dip in mortgage rates, but I'm advising my clients to lock when they have an opportunity.
Mark Madsen, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.

Until the economy breaks in one direction or the other, mortgage rates stay "stuck."
Dan Green,, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati

Rates will continue to trade in a very narrow range as negative economic news is offset by the massive supply of debt being issued. Lack of positive economic news tends to drive rates down, but the flood of government issued bonds financing "stimulus" has to be absorbed, tends to pressure rates upward as investors demand a better return and causes fears of future inflation. Interest rates continue to be very attractive, and first-time homebuyers are perfectly poised to take advantage of a large inventory, low interest rates and a tax credit. Don't wait too long, as the tax credit is schedule to expire Nov. 30, (and) many parts of the country are starting to report a slight increase in sales price.
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.

Mortgage rates seem to be range-bound. I think that will continue with rates neither rising nor dropping very much. There is a lot of volatility in the day to day, and even intraday movement of mortgage rates. I advise anyone who is happy with their rate to lock in and to forget about waiting for rates to drop.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.

Volatility rules the day-to-day and week-to-week trades and mortgage rate scenarios but overall mortgage rates should remain range-bound toward the end of the summer. Expect swings, high and low, to be broad though, up to a quarter point each way. Locking on the wrong day or floating could hurt you depending on your closing date.

Ask your lender how HERA and HVCC can impact you before you lock your rate.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.

Bankrate's analysts Panel
Will the Fed buybacks of Treasuries be extended? Until we get clarification on that, mortgage rates will remain range-bound.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst,

Some people seem to believe that housing markets have bottomed and that the end of the recession is at hand. They're wrong. As the economy worsens, a ceiling will remain over interest rates.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter,


About the Rate Trend Index surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

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