Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (Aug. 21 - Aug. 27) the experts say: Most likely rates won't change much.

Aug. 21 - Aug. 27 This week, half of the panelists believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 35 to 45 days. Another 29 percent predict that mortgage rates will rise over that period, and the rest think rates will fall. Panel: Up: 29% Down: 21% Unchanged: 50%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel Mixed economic reports continue to hold mortgage-backed securities within their recent trading range. This week's strong PPI report (indicative of inflation, which is the enemy of bonds) was tempered by a lackluster stock market and lower-than-expected new home starts. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. unchanged The 10-year Treasury closed today at 3.84 percent. Although we will see upward pressure in the next week or two from the fear of the failing GSEs, the demand for Treasuries and the falling inflation component will keep rates down. Remember that inflation is a lagging indicator and we are just now at the top of the inflation chart. Mitch Ohlbaum, President, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles down Inflation figures this week were hot (notably the PPI at a 27-year high) but they're measuring last month's numbers. (Because) oil prices have dropped considerably, mortgage bond traders barely flinched. As of this writing, MBS (mortgage-backed securities) are trading above the 25-day moving average and near 50 DMA. Good technical signals, but as was pointed out last week by Dan Green, new risk-level fees to conforming loans will wipe out gains. Bias: Locking. Sean Rafferty, mortgage planner, OurPersonalMortgagePlanner.com, San Jose, Calif. unchanged As the risk premium of Fannie and Freddie's debt increases, mortgage rates follow. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati up The daily tech has just about finished its up-cycle (higher prices, lower Treasury yields) and that gained us squat for mortgage rates. The daily will turn bearish soon but the weekly will still be bullish, indicating nothing good. The underlying fact is that bad mortgages have hurt the economy and mortgage debt is now a hard sell, even when the 10-year yield dips below 3.9 percent. Unfortunately for those of us in the mortgage business, there is some sense of justice operating here. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco unchanged Expect rates to remain range-bound as they have for much of the past month. Any changes will be predicated on changes to do with the GSEs. In the event rates do move higher, we would expect a larger-than-usual shift and at a faster rate due to volatility, which is the underlying key to rate changes and the mortgage valuation process. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. unchanged As of late, the markets have broken through a significant layer of resistance on the 50-day moving average, which has helped rates come down a bit. With inflation at an all-time high, the markets are looking to guess the Fed's next move for indication of where rates are headed. Ryan Kennelly, Mortgage banker, Prospect Mortgage, Bedford, N.H. unchanged Wednesday offered a perfect example of the volatility I have discussed in recent weeks, as rates have dropped about an eighth of a point today. However, inflation still remains real, even with declining energy prices recently, and economic news continues to weigh on stocks. Look for rates to remain range-bound overall with a range of about 10 (basis points) to 12 basis points. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. unchanged (There are) two factors working against lower rates. New "adverse market" adjustment to rates by the mortgage GSEs will make rates higher for most. Additionally, the technical signs point to a possible stochastic crossover in the next week which signals mortgage bonds are overbought. (There is a) strong possibility of a pullback in bond prices resulting in higher rates. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage advisor/President, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up Bankrate's analysts Panel Persistent inflation worries and more widening of mortgage spreads will lead to another rise in mortgage rates within a few weeks. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com up If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac truly are in peril, we could have turmoil in the mortgage market, and higher rates. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com up

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.