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Al
Gore or George W. Bush? Millions of people (Ralph Nader
and Pat Buchanan fans excepted) will be making that
decision in about six weeks.
But if your primary
concern is the direction of interest rates, how should
you cast your ballot?
Neither candidate
looks particularly positive, but experts say you might
want to go with Gore. He's likely to continue some of
Bill Clinton's beneficial economic programs while also
refraining from government spending sprees that could
disrupt the economy.
"If you look at the
tax and spending proposals of the two of them, on the
surface they both appear kind of moderate," says Gregory
Miller, chief economist with SunTrust Banks Inc. in
Atlanta. "But you don't have to dig down too deep to
find pretty fundamental philosophical differences, and
on balance the proposals that the Gore camp has put
forward are more positive for the bond market.
"They are more likely
to allow interest rates to go lower than are the proposals
that have come out of the Bush campaign."
How so?
Over the past year,
the U.S. government has been using money from the budget
surplus to buy back old debt while simultaneously reducing
sales of new bonds. That has helped keep bond yields
and interest rates from rising as much as they might
otherwise have because of the Federal Reserve Board's
rate hikes. Gore is likely to continue the Clinton-era
program, so rates could remain capped if he wins in
November.
While both camps have
proposed tax cuts and spending programs that could whittle
away the surplus, Bush's plan is more damaging from
a market perspective, Miller says. It would boost military
spending substantially and implement several targeted
tax cuts.
Since military projects
historically have run way over budget and targeted tax
cuts could encourage businesses to invest less productively,
the plan could make less money available for debt buybacks
and stem the economy's recent productivity boom.
In an ideal world
for mortgage hunters, Gore would win the presidency
but Republicans would remain in control of Congress.
The market prefers
little or no change to drastic government initiatives,
and having a split government would keep both parties
from doing anything jarring.
Still, borrowers shouldn't
get too excited about Gore. Both candidates' economic
plans have raised the hackles of bond market traders
the past few weeks and that has helped put a floor under
rates. Loan shoppers might want to e-mail both frontrunners
and tell them to cool it with the surplus spending shtick!
"The one factor that
has been causing interest rates to go up is concern
about the presidential election," says Mark Vitner,
an economist with Charlotte, N.C.-based First Union
Corp. "The candidates seem to want to spend all of the
surplus and slow down buying back debt."
The Bankrate.com National Index
is based on a Wednesday survey of the 50 largest banks
and the 50 largest thrifts in the 10 largest metropolitan
areas in the country. These are averages. To find specific
rates offered by lenders, go to our mortgage
rate search engine.
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