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FIXED RATES INCH DOWN: Results of Bankrate.com's Sept. 27 national survey and the effect on monthly payments for a $125,000 loan:

LOAN
Rate (change)
Payment (change)
30-YEAR FIXED
7.92% (-.03)
$910 (-$3)

15-YEAR FIXED
7.58% (-.02)
$1165 (-$1)

1-YEAR ARM
7.27% (=)
$854 (=)

Which presidential candidate will help home buyers?

Rates inch downAl Gore or George W. Bush? Millions of people (Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan fans excepted) will be making that decision in about six weeks.

But if your primary concern is the direction of interest rates, how should you cast your ballot?

Neither candidate looks particularly positive, but experts say you might want to go with Gore. He's likely to continue some of Bill Clinton's beneficial economic programs while also refraining from government spending sprees that could disrupt the economy.

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"If you look at the tax and spending proposals of the two of them, on the surface they both appear kind of moderate," says Gregory Miller, chief economist with SunTrust Banks Inc. in Atlanta. "But you don't have to dig down too deep to find pretty fundamental philosophical differences, and on balance the proposals that the Gore camp has put forward are more positive for the bond market.

"They are more likely to allow interest rates to go lower than are the proposals that have come out of the Bush campaign."

How so?

Over the past year, the U.S. government has been using money from the budget surplus to buy back old debt while simultaneously reducing sales of new bonds. That has helped keep bond yields and interest rates from rising as much as they might otherwise have because of the Federal Reserve Board's rate hikes. Gore is likely to continue the Clinton-era program, so rates could remain capped if he wins in November.

While both camps have proposed tax cuts and spending programs that could whittle away the surplus, Bush's plan is more damaging from a market perspective, Miller says. It would boost military spending substantially and implement several targeted tax cuts.

Since military projects historically have run way over budget and targeted tax cuts could encourage businesses to invest less productively, the plan could make less money available for debt buybacks and stem the economy's recent productivity boom.

In an ideal world for mortgage hunters, Gore would win the presidency but Republicans would remain in control of Congress.

The market prefers little or no change to drastic government initiatives, and having a split government would keep both parties from doing anything jarring.

Still, borrowers shouldn't get too excited about Gore. Both candidates' economic plans have raised the hackles of bond market traders the past few weeks and that has helped put a floor under rates. Loan shoppers might want to e-mail both frontrunners and tell them to cool it with the surplus spending shtick!

"The one factor that has been causing interest rates to go up is concern about the presidential election," says Mark Vitner, an economist with Charlotte, N.C.-based First Union Corp. "The candidates seem to want to spend all of the surplus and slow down buying back debt."

 


The Bankrate.com National Index is based on a Wednesday survey of the 50 largest banks and the 50 largest thrifts in the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the country. These are averages. To find specific rates offered by lenders, go to our mortgage rate search engine.

-- Posted: Sept. 28, 2000
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See Also
Rate Trend Index:
Find out which way rates are headed
The 10 biggest home-buying mistakes
When NOT to refinance
Track prime rate/other leading rate indexes
Mortgage glossary
More mortgage stories

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National Mortgage Rates
OVERNIGHT AVERAGES
Rates may include points.
30 yr fixed mtg 5.60%
15 yr fixed mtg 5.40%
5/1 jumbo ARM 6.03%



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