Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (Aug. 28 - Sept. 3) the experts say: Like last week, most likely, rates won't change much.

Aug. 28 - Sept. 3 This week, the panelists were almost evenly split. A little over one-third believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days, and a little over a third believe they will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Almost one-third think rates will fall. Panel: Up: 36% Down: 28% Unchanged: 36%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel Inflation is moderating a bit, consumer confidence is on the rise, and the dollar has been gaining strength. All these are good signs for the economy, but potentially mixed for mortgage rates. Although rates have decreased in the last couple of days, I expect them to hold where they are in the short term. Chris Sipe, loan officer, America East Mortgage, Frederick, Md. unchanged Rates should worsen a bit as troubles at Fannie and Freddie increase. Barry Habib, CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J. up Remember, the bond market, where mortgage interest rates are derived from, likes negative economic news. With weaker economic growth expected by the Fed, political unrest overseas, new home sales declining and median sale prices declining, inflation, which is the enemy of bonds, shows signs of cooling. It can be expected that mortgage interest rates will rally (decrease) in the near term. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. down Government intervention helps to lower mortgage rates. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati down The daily is about to down cross to bearish (higher Treasury yields), but on Aug. 25, we saw a disconnect between the 30-year and 10-year with the Treasury curve steepening. Add in concern about FHLMC and FNMA and the fact is that the techs offer little. With jumbos illiquid and the GSEs having to pay higher rates for debt, this is a really ugly picture. A Treasury Department takeover of FHLMC and FNMA is likely to become necessary and would best be done sooner rather than later. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco unchanged Rates continue to be range bound, constrained by the market's interpretation of future risk exposure. The GSEs' (FNMA/FHLMC) capital risks exposed most market observers to understand that if the entities do fail, it not only introduces additional volatility into current fund management portfolios by extracting liquidity, but also introduces yet again tighter lending limits. Mortgage rates, we know, thrive on debt market news, so if capital is harder to come by, think higher rates. Good news is the dollar is rebounding, helping alleviate this issue. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. unchanged Since last week, interest rates have traded in a 0.25 percent range higher and are basically unchanged from last week at this time. If you locked at the wrong time, you lost a little money. In the last three months, the best rates have been about 0.625 percent lower than the high point. Overall, look for continued volatility day to day but within a similar range. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. unchanged No data has changed to indicate long-term momentum shift. That momentum is for lower bond prices, thus higher rates. Hurricane Gustav could throw a few temporary wrenches into the works. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser and president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up Bankrate's analysts Panel Inflation worries persist and with the Fed both unwilling and unable to do anything about it, this spells higher mortgage rates. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com up The technicals indicate a possibility of higher rates. On the other hand, it's hard to believe that the spread between Treasuries and mortgage rates could get wider. If the federal government takes over Fannie or Freddie, expect rates to drop. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com unchanged

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.