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Low interest rates wreak havoc on savings strategies
By
Jim Middlemiss Bankrate.com
With Canada's bank rate hovering at three percent,
investors hunting for a decent return need to look high and wide
for suitable fixed-income investments.
It's a far cry from 1981, when the bank rate -- the
minimum amount at which the Bank of Canada extends short-term advances
to Canadian financial institutions -- hit a historical high of 21.03
percent. Hunting for yield then was like shooting fish in a barrel.
But those double-digit days are gone. This is especially
a concern when you consider that today a one-year Canada Savings
Bond pays interest of just 1.65 percent, while inflation in 2003
averaged about 2.2 percent. Definitely not a great time for savers.
Savings rule of thumb: Know the rate environment
Investing in a high-interest-rate environment is very different
from investing in a low-interest-rate world. So investors need to
pay attention to interest rates, says Julie Sheen, vice-president
of term investments at the Bank of Montreal in Toronto.
"People generally buy last year's performance. We
certainly see that a lot," says Sheen. Because of the currently
low rates, she says, people are "playing the interest rate game"
and holding off investing in hopes of higher rates. The problem
though, is that over the last few years, rates have hovered in the
two to four percent range, meaning they're still waiting for higher
rates.
A year ago, people were "convinced 2003 was the year
of the rising long-term interest rate. By the end of the year, we
are right where we started," says Sheen.
So what should you do? Well, a flat yield favors shorter-term
investments. "They tend to be more attractive," she says. However,
before making a commitment, "you need to go back to the starting
point and figure out what it is you're saving for." That sets your
investing time horizon and allows you to develop a strategy to meet
your goals.
She says fixed-income investors tend to be "heavy
savers, and they should be taking the prudent and conservative approach
and not try to time the interest rate cycles."
GICs vs. Bonds? Let the rate
environment guide you
In a low-rate environment, one investment to consider is a cashable
guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) with an escalating rate.
That way, if rates spike up, you can cash out and reinvest the money
at a higher rate. If rates rise slowly, the escalating feature allows
you to keep pace.
In a high-rate environment, where interest rates look
to decline, longer-term bonds are more appealing. That's because
they will actually rise in price as interest rates drop, since investors
are attracted to the higher payout.
The best strategy for either environment, however,
remains laddering, says Sheen. That means building a "well-diversified
portfolio of fixed-income investments of GICs or bonds" with maturity
dates spread out over five years so that 20 percent of the portfolio
comes due every year and can be reinvested.
That way, she says, investors ride the interest rate
as it rises and falls. They catch the upside when rates rise.
Low rates: Not great for savings,
but good for getting rid of debt
While a low-interest-rate environment can play havoc with your investments,
it also presents an opportunity to leverage your cash flow, says
Frank Zeppieri, a chartered accountant and certified financial planner
with the Investment Planning Council in Thornhill, Ont.
"A lot of clients don't pay attention to minimizing
the cost of credit and increasing their cash returns," he says.
But shuffling or reducing debt can have the same impact as investing
in a high-yield bond.
For example, if you have a $10,000 Visa debt at 18
percent and a $10,000 bond paying two percent, you're better off
cashing the bond and paying off the debt. That's because you would
pay $1,800 in interest in a year, but make only $200 on the bond,
a difference of $1,600.
"You want to convert high-cost debt into low-cost
debt," says Zeppieri. With interest rates low, it's also a good
time to consolidate debts. You can refinance your consumer debt
by rolling it into your mortgage. Because that's a secured loan,
you'll get a lower preferred rate and save on interest payments.
You'll also likely lower your monthly payment, which frees up cash
flow you can apply to your debts or investments.
Not only should you use low-rate environments to pay
down non-deductible debt, but "you should also try to turn non-deductible
debt into deductible debt," says Zeppieri.
For example, if you have $80,000 left on your mortgage
and $80,000 in your investment account, you should consider cashing
those investments and paying off the mortgage. Unlike in the U.S.,
mortgage interest is not deductible in Canada. However, you can
borrow back the $80,000 and use it to buy investments. And because
interest on investment loans is tax deductible, in the end you'll
have the same amount of debt and investment, but you'll have a deductible
expense that can be applied against your income.
The other strategy to consider in a low-rate environment
is consolidating your money into a cash-management account that
pays a higher interest rate than a standard savings account. You
might have to keep a higher balance, but you will get a better rate,
says Zeppieri.
Jim Middlemiss is a freelance
writer and lawyer based in Toronto. He's a frequent contributor
to National Post, Investment Executive and Wall Street and Technology.
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