This month's overall perspective is considerably more positive than what we saw in March. Still not many expecting to see rates rise, but a significant number of survey participants shifted from the "down" column to "unchanged."
Comments from our panel of experts and Bankrate
analysts:
Experts' comments
Short-term
Long-term
Invest
overseas. As our dollar continues to depreciate
-- which I believe is by design -- having euro
bills in the mattress may be a much better investment
than placing your money in a bank or money market
fund. I expect the yield curve to get a bit steeper
before short-term rates stabilize. I do not expect
long-term rates to go down in any appreciable
amount due to the inevitability of higher inflation
during the next decade (partially resulting from
the decline of the dollar). Benjamin Tobias, CFP
Tobias Financial Advisors,
Plantation, Fla.
down
unchanged
With
a federal funds rate at 2.25 percent, the lowest
since 2005, investors are faced with receiving
interest on their short-term investments that
may not even outpace inflation. This presents
a pitfall for investors who may be tempted to
take on riskier investments or longer-term investments
to make up for lost yield. It is important to
remember that the Fed reiterated during its meeting
that "downside risk to growth remains,"
suggesting that they may be forced to cut rates
further. While we may be nearing the bottom, low
interest rates for extended periods of time tend
to create an environment of higher inflation which
would eventually force the Fed to ratchet interest
rates back up. Because of this, investors should
resist the temptation to lock up low interest
rates for long periods of time, instead focusing
on maintaining the flexibility and liquidity to
react to the changing economic environment. Kurt J. Rossi, CFP, CRPC,
Independent Wealth Management,
Wall, N.J.
down
down
Rates have really moved down with the upheaval in the financial markets. While rates have basically gone straight down, we think there needs to be a digestive process and thus, we do not expect much movement in rates over the near term. Herbert G. Hopwood III, CFP, CFA, president Hopwood Financial Services Inc., Great Falls, Va.
unchanged
unchanged
If
you have been diligent in watching your finances
over the last several years, you now have the
privilege of paying the tab for those who were
not. As the Fed forces rates down to improve liquidity,
it acts like a hidden tax on savers. Combine this
with price inflation, particularly on the commodity
front, and you have a bad scenario. My suggestion
is try to keep your maturities in the short to
medium range and DO NOT stretch for yield. Forgo
that little extra yield for liquidity. William Z. Suplee IV, CFA, CFP
Structured Asset Management Inc.,
Paoli, Pa.
unchanged
down
The
real questions are: How low can the Fed take rates
and how will affect me? Let's look at some recent
historic events to get a better perspective. In
2001, the Fed cut the federal funds rates 11 times.
That's almost every month of that year. Actually,
they cut twice in January, starting from a rate
of 6.5 percent and ended the year at 1.75 percent.
In 2002, they cut the rate once more by one-half
percent, lowering the rate to 1.25 percent. In
June 2003, the rate was cut by one-quarter percent
to the historic low of 1 percent. The 1 percent
rate remained for one full year until June 2004
when the Fed raised rates 17 straight times, pushing
the rate from 1 percent to 5.25 percent. In this
round of cutting, the Fed has lowered rates six
times, for a total of 300 basis points, and we
believe that the Fed will certainly cut another
75 basis points with a target federal funds rate
of 1.5 percent. We do believe that this should
be the bottom and the end of the cuts. Our suggestion
for CD buyers is to hold tight until the fourth
quarter. A rally in equities market will have
more to do with raising deposits rates than the
Fed. Martin P. Mesecke, CFP,
Self Worth Financial Planning LLC,
Plano, Texas
unchanged
unchanged
Bankrate's analysts
Short-term
Long-term
For savers, the Fed can't stop cutting rates soon enough. If the goal is to preserve principal, then sometimes you must take what the market gives you. Shorter maturities will give you the flexibility to regularly survey the landscape and be best positioned whenever yields rebound.
Greg McBride, senior
financial analyst, Bankrate.com
down
down
Unless
there's a remarkable turn of events, it wouldn't
be surprising to see the Fed cut rates again this
month, although we can always hope they're done.
Be careful in your search for yield -- stay with
top-of-the-line options. Considering the overall
situation, there are still some decent rates being
offered in high-yield,
FDIC-insured CDs. Laura Bruce, senior
reporter, Bankrate.com
down
down
Certified Financial Planners, Chartered Financial
Analysts and others with similar qualifications are invited to e-mail
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About the Bankrate.com Rate
Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the financial planning, banking
and mortgage industries to gauge whether certificate of deposit
and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged.
The deposit index panel consists of financial planners and representatives
of institutions that offer FDIC-insured CDs to the consumer. The
mortgage index panel consists of mortgage banks, mortgage brokers
and other industry experts who are actively engaged in providing
residential first mortgages to the consumer. Results from the CD
Rate Trend Index are released monthly. Results from the Mortgage
Trend Index are released each week.