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Where to stash cash in a down rate market
By Laura
Bruce
Let's
see, back in mid-November 2000, the one-year CD was yielding 5.55
percent.
In mid-May 2003, a one-year certificate of deposit
yields 1.26 percent.
Ouch.
If you have CDs or Treasuries that are maturing and
want to replace them, you know this interest rate environment stinks.
What are the options for getting the most return for
money you want to keep fairly liquid?
We asked four experts what they'd do given the current
rate situation and the fact that everyone seems to be guessing whether
the economy will turn around this year:
Stewart Welch, The Welch group,
Birmingham, Ala.
"If rates are flat, then it's all about current rates.
We'd go to Bankrate.com and search
for the CDs. What are they paying? Compare that to the best yields
in the money market funds.
"We probably wouldn't go much beyond that for
something that's a maturity of 12 months or less. If you look at
those two and you made an assumption that interest rates were going
to drift down, go with the CD. You would lock in the rate for 12
months while the money market will deteriorate on a daily basis.
If interest rates are drifting up, go with the money market -- get
the benefit of daily rate increases. If it's neutral, pick whichever
one has the highest rate.
"Define the time horizon in which you have the
money. If you need it in less than three years, keep it out of the
market. If you thought interest rates would trend down over the
next five years and you want 40 percent allocated to fixed income,
use bonds and Treasuries as a substitute to equities."
Kathleen Day, The Enrichment Group, Miami, Fla.
"If it's cash for emergency funds, I'd move
it to money market funds for a better rate or just for the convenience.
"If I don't get a premium for having it in a
CD I'm not keeping it there. If we were doing CDs it'd be for just
three or six months. If I'm looking at a time horizon where I can
target maturity -- say I have some cash and a student going to college
in two years, I'd look at corporate bonds where the maturity date
matches the date when I know I need the money.
"If the money's inside an IRA and I know it'll
be there a while, as part of my asset allocation I might use a stable
value fund. It's kind of like a corporate bond fund but they have
an insurance overlay where principal is guaranteed. The yield is
a little higher than with a traditional Treasury because of the
inherent volatility in a corporate bond, but since it's insured
you won't see that volatility. Look at the yield and decide if it's
worthwhile."
Jason Flurry, Legacy Partners
Financial Group, Woodstock, Ga.
"The best strategy in times like these is the same as always:
Ladder maturities of CDs and Treasuries over a period of five to
seven years. Rates go up and down in cycles. By laddering you'll
have money to take advantage of the ups and downs. Average returns
tend to be better with laddering than if you randomly pick maturities
based on current conditions. It also removes emotions from financial
planning because you always know what to do with the money. You'll
love some of the rates and hate the others. The highs and lows will
wash each other out and you'll end up with a better average return.
"Some people will have cash needs. For that,
the non-bank money market funds such as Fidelity or Vanguard are
the best. They don't usually skim fees out of the yields like many
banks and brokerage firms do. Also, typically, they lag the Fed
rate cut so you catch a break for about three or four weeks. The
bad news is when rates are going up the reaction is also delayed.
"It looks like we'll see another half-point rate
cut before the Fed is through. They'll probably take the rate to
3.5 percent. The Fed cuts affect the shorter-term rates; they do
very little to affect the five-year rate, which is pretty stable
right now. With the ladder it's not difficult to get 5.5 percent,
6 percent or even 6.25 percent now for the long rates."
Greg McBride, financial analyst,
Bankrate.com
"Those investors who have painstakingly constructed a laddered
CD portfolio are now reaping the benefits as only a portion is being
reinvested at a time when yields are the lowest since 1994. Much
as a diversified stock portfolio has protected against the carnage
in tech stocks, diversifying a cash portfolio by laddering offers
protection from reinvesting the whole bundle when yields are low.
"The risk of going long-term now is locking up
too much money for too long a period at too low a yield. High-yield
money market accounts are a fine alternative -- easily 4.5 percent,
5 percent or more with modest minimum deposits. The Internet banks,
money markets or high-yield CDs are outpacing Treasury securities.
That more than compensates you for the income-tax benefits Treasuries
provide."
How
to ladder a CD portfolio
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