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April
7 , 2000 -- Pssst ... interested in a really hot money tip? Buy
a CD.
Certificates of deposit, hot?
That's right. While Wall Street's wild ride
continues to send day traders running for the antacids, rates on
the humble CD have slowly risen to their highest level since May
'95.
The Bankrate.com National Index average yield
for a 1-year CD is currently a sizzling 5.32 percent, up from 4.38
percent one year ago.
The same index shows the 5-year CD at 6.00 percent,
surging up from 4.61 percent just 12 months ago.
But that's not all!
Go to the Bankrate's
100 Highest Yields section and you can find 1-year yields of
7 percent and 5-year yields exceeding 7.3 percent. To find the best
deal in your backyard, check out our state-by-state
listings.
There's even more good news.
"CD yields have increased steadily in the
past 12 months, but the rate of inflation hasn't," says
Bankrate.com financial analyst Greg McBride. "This translates
to a higher real rate of return to CD investors over the past year."
Antidote
to market nausea
The CD revival is not as surprising as it may seem, according to
Keith Leggett, senior economist with the American
Bankers Association. After all, even the most avid investor
cringes when the stock market takes one of its heart-pounding, stomach-dropping
roller coaster dives.
"As the stock market becomes a lot more
volatile, investors and savers are going to look for sources of
liquidity, and CDs are an ideal spot to park your money," says
Leggett. "They offer a return, they're liquid, and they're
especially attractive to the small investor because your principal
is safe."
If the roller coaster rides of the Dow and the
Nasdaq weren't enough to scare you off stocks, there is the added
uncertainty of the presidential race to consider.
"Election years always have a degree of
volatility because there's this uncertainty about what is going
to continue as far as the course of policy; is there going to be
any kind of radical change in policy? Especially when you don't
have an incumbent running."
Those fleeing to the sanctuary of CDs will find
good news indeed.
"Rates are very attractive right now and
savers may want to take advantage of it," Leggett says. "The
rates reflect the fact that banks are trying to attract funds in
part to meet loan demands. When you look at how strong the economy
has been performing, at least over the last several years, the growth
of loan demand has outpaced the growth of core deposits, so banks
need to find ways of attracting new sources of funding. And there's
a lot of competition out there, and that's another factor that's
being reflected in these prices."
Bottom line: It's hip (and nicely profitable)
to own CDs again, and their new high rates are just the latest evidence
of their revival.
The
comeback kids of savings
Like Rodney Dangerfield, certificates of deposit are used to getting
no respect. Until this revival the hottest investment vehicle of
the '80s had become the eight-track player of the financial world,
a ho-hum underachiever favored only by the most risk-averse mattress-stuffers
among us.
But
steadily CDs mounted their comeback. Now like a healthy but routine
breakfast cereal you've grown tired of, CDs are back with "new
and improved", "more choices" and "try me now"
written brightly all over the box.
Instead of little marshmallows in the mix, you
get "stock market CDs" and the like. The day is approaching
when CDs will come with frequent flier freebies or washing machines.
And people who sell CDs believe many buyers who abandoned them for
bigger and better returns might soon be coming back because CDs
still have their reliability, safety and earning power along with
their new wrinkles.
The reasons for the CD's luster loss were fairly
obvious: The stock market's roll, inflation and unemployment were
down, and the explosion of new technologies and spiffy financial
products made speculating as easy as brushing your teeth.
In fact, according to "Recent
Changes in U.S. Family Finances: Results from the 1998 Survey of
Consumer Finances" by the Federal Reserve Board, more families
now hold mutual funds (16.5 percent) than CDs (15.3 percent), and
have for the past couple of years.
"CDs are not viewed as an investment vehicle
the way they were a decade ago," says Leggett. "You go
back 25 years ago, households held close to 30 percent of their
wealth in bank deposits. Today, it's down to 13 percent, including
CDs."
As times have changed, so have saving habits.
Ten years ago, according to the survey, 20.4 percent of those questioned
were primarily saving for retirement and 37.5 for liquidity. Today,
those figures are reversed: 34.7 percent say they're tending their
nest egg while 23.3 percent are seeking liquidity. Chalk that up
to the great awakening.
As baby boomers jog into middle age, retirement
suddenly doesn't look so far away. With kids -- and elderly parents
-- to tend to, the boomers jumped from CDs to higher-yielding mutual
funds.
"Right now, about 50 percent of all households
are holding some form of stock wealth, so that's becoming more prevalent
as a means of saving," says Leggett. "The returns being
generated on the stock market compared to CDs have made it more
attractive. It may also be that households are changing their risk
tolerances; they may be willing to assume more risk."
And where there is a motivated buyer, there
is ample opportunity for the savvy seller.
Building
a sexier CD
CDs aren't sitting lost and lonely like wallflowers at a dance any
more. Thomas Coan, president of Federally
Insured Savings Network, one of the oldest CD brokerage houses,
says the frumpy CD has taken on a sexy new look of late.
"We've never seen so many issuers of negotiable
CDs," he says. "We started the Web site four years ago
with just jumbo CDs."
Today, CD brokerages feature a sometimes-baffling
array of products: fixed-rate jumbo, fixed-rate callable, bonus-rate
callable, fixed-rate/fixed-term and compounding growth, to name
just a few. Strong stock market performance has also prompted the
introduction of a stock market CD, with interest based upon the
gain in the S&P 500. It's a way for the timid to play the market
without risking their initial investment, which is insured by the
Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation.
"This has the best of both worlds,"
says Coan. "You'll never lose your original principal and there's
a lot of potential for upside if the stocks go up. A couple of the
stock market CDs we've done have been unlimited in the respect that
there is no averaging. They're what we call point-to-point, so if
the S&P is up 300 percent, you're getting 300 percent."
Hmmmmm, those stock market CDs look tempting,
you say.
"Frankly," says Coan, "they're
interesting, but they're not a great seller. There are two kinds
of people -- the equity people and the CD people. The equity people
don't look at CDs very much and the CD people don't think about
equity very much." Coan chuckles at some of the new products.
"We once had a CD that was keyed to the stock market going
down," he recalls. "I'm not sure we actually sold one."
He's equally skeptical of recent online CD auctions.
"I think that's kind of phony. I don't think there's really
much of an auction going. If you put in 9 percent, they're not going
to pay you 9 percent. I don't think they're compelled to do anything."
Making
CDs work for you
The venerable CD remains a relatively straightforward money tool.
In general, the longer you are willing to invest, the better your
rate of return. The best place to shop rates and features? You're
already there!
Callable CDs have the potential for higher returns
after the non-call period if rates stay healthy, but can be losers
if rates drop off and the bank does not call them. "In order
to get your money out, you either have to die, or sell it in the
market, which can sometimes be painful if rates have fallen a lot,"
Coan says.
Best bet: If you might need the money sooner
rather than later, stick with a non-callable CD.
Shrinking
ranks
Like many consumers, America's banks are being lured away from CDs
by a better offer. "CDs do give banks flexibility, but banks
are now turning to more wholesale funds to fund themselves,"
says Leggett.
"They're starting to use the Federal Home
Loan Bank System, which allows them to match up their maturity structures.
One of the problems banks have had is they'll lend long and fund
themselves short. The Federal Home Loan program allows them to match
up the maturity so you're borrowing long and you're lending long."
Leggett predicts: "It's going to create
a more interesting market in CDs. Some banks will decide they're
not going to pursue CDs as a funding option. Some bankers have found
the market in CDs so intense that they find it more attractive to
simply pursue wholesale funding."
Boomeranging
boomers
There is little doubt that CDs will remain a favorite option for
risk-averse investors who want safety of principal. After all, according
to first quarter 1999 FDIC figures, CDs are our second favorite
savings vehicle ($1.59 trillion) next to savings accounts ($1.61
trillion).
Coan says he wouldn't be surprised to see CD
issuers follow the lead of credit card companies and offer free
air travel, service discounts, even major appliances, in lieu of
interest. And remember those baby boomers who cashed in their CDs
in favor of mutual funds? Leggett says that, in all likelihood,
they'll be back.
"As the baby boomers age, they are going
to look at changing their investment mix. When you're younger, you
are interested in growth; you want to build your nest egg as fast
as possible. When you get older, you become more interested in income
stream and not necessarily in building that nest egg, because that
nest egg is at risk when you try to build it fast. So you start
changing your portfolio makeup and that's going to move more into
annuities and CDs, where you've got a fixed income coming in."
Building a big nest egg is fun, but in the long
run, holding on to it is even more fun.
Jay MacDonald
is a freelance writer based in Florida
This is an updated version of a story that initially ran on March
31.
To comment on this story, please e-mail the Bankrate.com
editors.
-- Posted: April 7, 2000
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