Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (May 8 - May 14) the experts say: Rates are likely to go up.

May 8 - May 14 This week, a solid majority of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. About one-quarter think rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points), and the rest believe rates will fall. Panel: Up: 63% Down: 16% Unchanged: 21%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel The vicious cycle of falling property values, loan defaults and constricted credit continue the consumer confidence crisis in respect to the housing market. Much lower mortgage rates will be the salve for everyone that has been burned. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader Laguna Niguel, Calif. down Rates are on the rise! Bob Moulton, CEO Americana Mortgage Group Inc., Manhasset, N.Y. up Bond traders have started getting antsy in recent days. Their selling has driven long-term Treasury prices lower and yields higher. Inflation concerns -- what with oil trading at $120 a barrel -- appear to be behind the pressure. If you're looking to refi to a fixed rate loan, you might want to act soon. Mike Larson, interest rate and real estate analyst, MoneyandMarkets.com, Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. up With continued pressure from better-than-expected earnings on Wall Street and the increasing concern over inflation, mortgage rates continue to suffer. Until inflation is well under control and no longer an omnipresent concern, rates will rise. Ryan Kennelly, mortgage banker, Indymac Bank, Bedford, N.H. up Renewed talk of inflation, continued credit constrictions and recent stock market "strength" will pressure mortgage rates to stay where they are with a slight bias toward increasing. David Kuiper, Mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. up Eighty percent of the conforming loans issued last quarter were either owned or guaranteed by FNMA/FHLMC. Relaxed capital requirements by OFHEO will free up some much-needed liquidity. This should be positive for borrowers in terms of sustaining rates neutral for a short period of time. This does not erase inflation concerns which, long term, will drive rates higher. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. unchanged Try as they might, mortgage bonds are having a hard time offering us lower rates. Investors aren't worried about the stability of mortgage backs as much as they are about inflation. Employment numbers could weigh heavily on the upcoming month's interest rates. Rate lock strategies must be analyzed day to day. Those on the sidelines waiting for lower rates may be "Waiting for Godot." Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser and president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up With oil prices on the rise and Goldman Sachs predicting that even higher prices are in store, the inflationary effects of high oil prices could pressure mortgage bond prices to move lower, causing home loan rates to move higher. Sue Woodard, loan consultant, CTX Mortgage, Minneapolis up Evidence of an economic recovery leads the U.S. dollar higher and that should be good for mortgage-backed bonds. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati down I think the give and take of poor economic news, which is normally good for rates while bad for the economy, will be overcome by the prospects and reality of inflation. If anyone would have said oil priced at $95 a barrel would look appealing six months ago, you would have asked, "Are you kidding?" Rates will trade higher but will be limited by declining economic numbers. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. up The 10-year Treasury is currently trading at 3.92 percent which is up from 3.83 percent one week ago. The continued pressure from food and energy causes inflation worries, but if the upward trend continues, they will not be inflationary but deflationary, which is more worrisome. The Fed is walking a very tight rope between trying to stir the economy and keeping inflation in check. Rates will continue to bump around for the next few weeks if not months. Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles unchanged Although we may see a modest improvement in the very near term as a result of profit taking in the stock market, inflationary concerns, specifically with food and energy, will continue to take money out of mortgage backed securities and rates will move higher. Chris Sipe, loan officer, America East Mortgage, Frederick, Md. up A dip lower, which will be a great refi opportunity. But rates will move back up, on inflation pressures. Barry Habib, CEO Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J. down Economic fundamentals continue to paint a confusing picture. One day the news is good. The next day it is bad. It would appear that the economy is flat with little growth or sign of real recession. This is likely to translate into range-bound Treasuries and mortgage rates for an annoyingly long period. The techs are not strong enough and are in opposition, so no info there. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco unchanged Mortgage rates will remain unchanged as the "issues" in the market continue to flush out. If a rate and program look good, lock it in, as guidelines are still changing on a day-to-day basis. Jeremy Forcier, mortgage broker, California Mortgage Advisors, San Rafael, Calif. unchanged Bankrate's analysts Panel Inflation worries will continue to be the main driver of mortgage rates. Greg McBride, financial analyst, Bankrate.com up Rising fuel prices, record budget deficits and uncertainty about who will run for president. All of these combine to push mortgage rates upward. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com up

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.