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Mortgage Rate Trend Index   This week: July 30 - Aug. 5
  Bankrate surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of  
 mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days. 

Rate Trend Index

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (July 23 - July 29) the experts say: Rates will likely remain unchanged.

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July 23 - July 29

This week, about one-quarter of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Another quarter think rates will fall, and about half believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

  Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts
Experts' comments Panel
Rates are hovering back in the 4.75 percent rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Even at these low rates, the banksters are making considerable profits right now as there is little competition in the marketplace. Rates will remain in this range as employment growth and access to credit for businesses are not improving anytime soon.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.

Bernanke's testimony to Congress seemed to reassure Treasury buyers. This should bring an early end to the daily bear cycle and with the weekly bullish, we should see lower Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco

Barring a shock to the system, rates remain range-bound for now.
Dan Green, TheMortgageReports.com, Waterstone Mortgage, Cincinnati

Rates will continue to bounce around in a very narrow range ... 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent on a 30-year fixed rate with zero points. We've seen some improvement in recent days with the Fed testimony forecasting no threat of inflation for the near term, a struggling stock market and increasing unemployment. Rates will remain very attractive in the near term. Don't try to time the market, either from an interest rate perspective or a property value perspective. Make an informed decision in today's very attractive buyer's market, especially if you are a first time buyer (the time clock on the tax credit is ticking)!
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.

I expect back-to-school retail sales to disappoint. This should put a damper on stock market enthusiasm and remind everyone that while the recession may be ending, any recovery will be very slow. This will cause bond yields and mortgage rates to drop as summer ends.
Michael Becker, mortgage consultant, Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance, Lutherville, Md.

Bernanke spoke this week and said, in essence, be prepared for more of the same regarding the economy and other things. For the time frame here of 35 to 45 days, I'll stick with him.
Once again though, unchanged over time is not the same as day to day. Gamble in Las Vegas, not with your mortgage.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.

Bankrate's analysts Panel
Mortgage rates fell after Bernanke reiterated that the Fed will keep rates low for an extended period. Mortgage rates are range-bound, alternately rising and falling, even from one day to the next. A big move either way is unlikely.
Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com

"Undecided" is more like it.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com


About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

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Compare today's rates
30 yr fixed mtg 3.95%
15 yr fixed mtg 3.05%
5/1 ARM 3.71%
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