| Each week, Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to
gauge the state of mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise,
fall or remain relatively unchanged? |
|
This week (Sept. 21- Sept. 27) the experts say:
Rates are likely to either move down or stay about the same. |
| | PANEL:
| |
|
Down: 40%
|
Up:
20% |
Unchanged:
40% |
|
| This week, just one-fifth of the panelists believe
mortgage rates will rise over the next 30 to 45 days. The rest are
evenly split among the experts who predict that rates will fall and
those who expect rates to remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus
2 basis points). |
|
Graph
the trend for mortgages
Archive
of Rate Trend Index columns
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| EXPERTS' COMMENTS: |
"The Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates
unchanged at the Sept. 20 meeting should rally the bond market and
drive rates lower, at least for the short term. It is my opinion that
we should not see any additional Fed rate hikes for the remainder
of the year with a cut in early 2007."
-- J.R. Diaz, vice president, Statewide Bancorp,
Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.
 RATE
VOTE: Down
|
"Though the Fed held steady, other nations are
increasing their domestic interest rates to combat inflation pressures.
Money will shift away from U.S. mortgage-backed securities and into
other markets, causing mortgage rates to increase over the next month."
-- Dan Green, mortgage planner, Mobium Mortgage,
Chicago
 RATE
VOTE: Up
|
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"I speak
here each week about the technicals in order to provide an idea
about long-term direction. A most significant event just occurred.
The month-to-month tech upcrossed. This reflects the bullish nature
of the Treasury market the past few weeks but also presages lower
yields for another 12 months. We will mark an 'official' end to
the secular bear market -- the rule is that this tech must remain
upcrossed at month's end.
Briefing.com quotes a survey of economists which says that 40 percent
of them expect the Fed to increase rates in the first quarter of
2007. I will forgo economist jokes and simply note that these folks
are not convinced that inflation is tamed for the long term.
The Fed will express the same concerns those economists have --
namely that inflation is public enemy No. 1 for, not just Treasury
yields and mortgage rates, but for the economy in general. We are
seeing commodity price relief but increases in wages have been greater
this year than in the previous several years and that could keep
inflation at a level of concern because wage increases stick while
commodity price increases do not. The last issue is one of those
which is difficult to discuss in a public forum. It might be a bit
difficult for a politician to get up and say, 'I am really concerned
for the economy because workers wage increases are getting a tad
high.'"
-- Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential
Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco
 RATE
VOTE: Unchanged
|
"Mortgage-backed securities appear to
be very overbought technically at the moment but in the face of otherwise
bullish economic information, rates overall should remain basically
unchanged. From a technical aspect though, we have been trading in
a very tight range since Aug. 16. When we break from this range to
either the high or low side, movement could be drastic and swift.
Keep a hand on the phone and make sure your mortgage professional
is continually monitoring the movement of mortgage-backed securities
to nail the best possible rate for you."
-- Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach
Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.
RATE
VOTE: Unchanged |
"Rates will continue
their very slow decline over the next 30 to 45 days and beyond. As
expected, the Fed left rates unchanged and continued their 'pause'
but it is becoming more and more clear that the economy is slowing
and inflation is no longer the threat originally perceived. All of
this along with the decrease in oil will give the market some breathing
room and allow rates to drift down."
-- Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage,
Los Angeles
RATE
VOTE: Down |
| BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS: |
"The bond market seems to think inflation is dead
and that the economy is slowing precipitiously. This has been good
for mortgage borrowers as rates have fallen. But when will reality
set in?"
-- Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com
RATE
VOTE: Up
|
"The bond markets apparently believe that the Fed will cut
short-term rates in the first half of 2007. Maybe the market is right,
maybe not. In any case, that expectation is driving long-term rates
lower."
-- Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
RATE
VOTE: Down
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• | ................................ About
the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking
and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and
mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the
deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions
that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end
consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers,
mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential
first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD
Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's
Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
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