| Each week, Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to
gauge the state of mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise,
fall or remain relatively unchanged? |
|
This week (Aug. 30 - Sept. 7) the experts say:
It's almost an even split, with a slight edge to the probability of rates
increasing or staying the same. |
| | PANEL:
| |
|
Down: 14%
|
Up:
43% |
Unchanged:
43% |
| | |
|
| EXPERTS' COMMENTS: |
"Consumer confidence slipped to a nine-month
low on anxiety about job growth and inflation. Less favorable business
conditions coupled with a less favorable job scenario have resulted
in the largest one-month decline in confidence since Hurricane Katrina
last year. The cloudy outlook comes amid mounting evidence that higher
rates have started to slow the pace of U.S. home price gains. Last
week, reports showed that sales of new and existing homes in July
both slowed by more than 4 percent. I believe these will keep interest
rates unchanged short term with lower rates coming in early 2007."
-- J.R. Diaz, vice president, Statewide Bancorp,
Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.
 RATE
VOTE: Unchanged
|
"The market has convinced itself that inflation
pressures subsided, but the members of the Federal Open Market Committee
insist otherwise. Advantage: Fed. Mortgage rates will move higher
in response."
-- Dan Green, mortgage planner, Mobium Mortgage,
Chicago
 RATE
VOTE: Up
|
|
"The fact
is that we have seen Treasuries and, consequently, mortgage rates
take a pre-emptive drop. This buying flew into the face of our technical
analysis which creates some concern. The long-term tech is bearish
but showing all signs of turning bullish at or before year end.
The week-to-week tech is still bullish and the day-to-day is maintaining
its bullish cycle after a very brief down cycle. We have all gotten
complacent about the BLS jobs report because it has been so 'blah'
for so long but coming on a short trading day in front of a three-day
weekend any outsized data in either jobs or average hourly wage
might cause some selling. This report will be out on Sept. 1. With
the markets having already bought presuming no more Fed hikes and
contained inflation we are entering a risky few months. In the near
term, all of the risk to rates is to the upside."
-- Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential
Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco
RATE
VOTE: Unchanged
|
| BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS: |
"The bad economic news is priced in, so any
indication that the glass is half full rather than half empty will
cause rates to rise -- but only modestly."
-- Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst,
Bankrate.com
RATE
VOTE: Up
|
"Falling consumer confidence leads me to think that Friday's
employment report will yield disappointing job-creation numbers. When
will we hear credible economists speculate that recession is upon
us? Probably sooner than most of us think."
-- Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
 RATE
VOTE: Down
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• | ................................ About
the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking
and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and
mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the
deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions
that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end
consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers,
mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential
first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD
Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's
Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
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