| Each week, Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to
gauge the state of mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise,
fall or remain relatively unchanged? |
|
This week (June 22- June 28) the experts say:
You're probably better off locking. |
| | PANEL:
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Down: 29%
|
Up:
42% |
Unchanged:
29% |
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| This week, almost half of the panelists believe mortgage
rates will rise over the next 30 to 45 days. The rest are split equally
among those who think rates will fall, and those who believe rates
will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). |
|
Graph
the trend for mortgages
Archive
of Rate Trend Index columns
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| EXPERTS' COMMENTS: |
"Beginning June 30, doubts will again resurface
about whether the fed funds rate will stop raising rates, creating
uncertainty. As soon as traders start asking, 'Will the Fed finally
pause?' mortgage rates will head lower. Don't expect that window to
last long, however. Firmer opinions on the Fed will form by July 15,
pushing rates back up."
-- Dan Green, mortgage planner, Mobium Mortgage,
Chicago
 RATE
VOTE: Down
|
"All eyes are on the Fed for next week. Most economic data
still point to inflationary numbers that cause them concern. Some
talk on trading floors even wonders whether the Fed could increase
50 basis points and not just the 25 basis points that are expected.
Technical traders show that mortgage-backed securities are ripe for
a rebound in pricing and an improvement in rates but the rising trend
in rates will be hard to overcome. If you are looking to buy a house
or restructure your finances, I would be more inclined to lock at
application, as opposed to floating and hoping for a minor improvement."
-- Jim Sahnger, vice president, Palm Beach Financial
Network, Stuart, Fla.
 RATE
VOTE: Up
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"It appears as if the
main driver of mortgage rates -- the markets for U.S. Treasuries
-- has entered a period of the flat 'going nowheres.' Volatility
is low, and participants are resigned to a 25-basis-point hike on
June 29 and a likely hike following that. The Fed has gotten its
'we are going to contain inflation' message across. We will probably
see another round of 'plea bargaining' as equities buyers explain
to the Fed why it should not hike anymore. If you want to divine
the Fed's moves, look only at core CPI or personal consumption expenditures.
In brief, we are likely to see an extended period
of flat yields. We will also continue to see modest inversion as
the Fed lifts the short end. Media idiots will portray this as a
prelude to recession, but the Wall Street adage that yield curve
inversions have correctly predicted eight of the last two recessions
remains true. This modest inversion is a fabrication of the fact
that the Fed is lifting the short end while the long end is inflation-driven.
It is an indication of nothing else."
-- Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential
Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco
 RATE
VOTE: Unchanged
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| BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS: |
"The Fed means business and will raise rates
again. The bond market is getting the message, with mortgage rates
slowly creeping higher."
-- Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst,
Bankrate.com
RATE
VOTE: Up
|
"The long-term trend for mortgage rates is upward. But rates
don't move up or down in smooth paths. They zigzag. They zigged a
little too high this week and are likely to drop slightly. But three
months and six months from now, I expect them to be higher."
-- Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com
RATE
VOTE: Down
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• | ................................ About
the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking
and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and
mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the
deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions
that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end
consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers,
mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential
first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD
Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's
Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
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