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| Each week,
Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of mortgage
rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise, fall or remain
relatively unchanged? |
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This
week (Dec. 29 - Jan. 4) the experts say:Mortgage rates will fall. |
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PANEL: |
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Down: 80%
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Up:
20% |
Unchanged: 0% |
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| EXPERTS' COMMENTS: |
"The year is ending and
few traders are there to even see it. When traders return next week,
buyers playing catch-up on the long end of the curve will push down
rates. For now."
-- Dan Green, 21st Century Mortgage Bankers,
Westmont, Ill.
 RATE
VOTE:Down |
""Of note is the flatness
of the Treasury yield curve. A flat yield curve and especially an
inverted one (when the 30-year yield is less than the 10-year yield)
is generally a sign of slow economic growth or a precursor to recession.
There is little mystery to the present flat yield curve. The long
end (10 and 30 year) is market driven and the driving force is inflation
or the lack thereof. The short end especially yields up to two years
is driven by the Federal Reserve's ability to control short-term rates.
Fed hiking and no inflation have flattened the yield curve. If one
waits until about 2-3 months after the Fed stops hiking, the shape
of the yield curve may have some meaning as a predictor of economic
activity. The present shape of the yield curve should not be read
as a sign of impending economic slowdown. For mortgage rates we have
been seeing a modest tech rally (the one we have been forecasting
for heaven knows how long). This rally affects only the long end and
might get the 10-year yield down to about 4.2%."
-- Dick Lepre, Residential Pacifc Mortgage
- SF, San Francisco, Calif.
RATE
VOTE:Down |
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• Ready to buy? Save money by using our
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rate search tables to find the best deal.
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| BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS: |
"The yield curve may have
inverted but that doesn't mean mortgage rates won't go higher - they
will."
-- Greg McBride, CFA, senior financial analyst,
Bankrate.com
 RATE
VOTE:Up
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"With the yield curve
inverting, and with mortgage rates headed down for the third week
in a row, the odds are that rates will be even lower over the next
35 to 45 days."
-- Holden Lewis, Senior reporter, Bankrate.com
RATE
VOTE:Down
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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend
Index
Bankrate.com surveys more than 100 experts
in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate
of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged.
For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit
unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the
end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers,
mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential
first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD
Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's
Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
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