Each week,
Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of mortgage
rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise, fall or remain
relatively unchanged?
This week (Dec. 11 - Dec. 17) the experts say:
Rates are likely to stay in a narrow range.
PANEL:
Down: 20%
Up:
20%
Unchanged:
60%
Sixty percent of our panelists believe that mortgage rates will remain about the same (plus or minus 2 basis points) over the next 30 to 45 days. The rest are evenly split among those who think rates will rise and those who predict that rates will fall.
"If the economy is so
good, why would a quarter- or half-percent rise in interest rates
hurt? Rates should rise if all is well, but with lackluster job growth
and low inflation, how good is good? The economy is stabilizing, but
this 'off to the races' scenario is not panning out." -- Todd Brown, executive vice president,
Patriot National Bank, Melville, N.Y. RATE
VOTE: Down
"Rates have been choppy,
but mostly flat for the last couple of months. I expect that trend
to continue through Christmas and then probably resume the slow hike
higher into next year." -- Jason P. Flurry, CFP, LPL Financial,
Planmark Capital Management, LLC, Alpharetta, Ga. RATE
VOTE: Unchanged
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BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS:
"Even the FOMC now acknowledges
that the economy is 'expanding briskly.' Notwithstanding the disappointing
payrolls report, which is subject to later revision, the stage is
set for rates to trek higher in 2004." -- Greg McBride, financial analyst, Bankrate.com RATE
VOTE: Up
"The Fed says 'output
is expanding briskly' and that an 'unwelcome fall in inflation' is
less probable now than it was six weeks ago. Corporations are issuing
bonds. These are signs that long-term rates are headed upward -- perhaps
not immediately, and probably not swiftly, but upward nonetheless." -- Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com RATE
VOTE: Up
................................
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys more than 100 experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
