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Rate Trend Index
  Each week, Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged?

Don't lock inThis week (Jan. 18 - Jan. 25, 2001) the experts say:
DON'T LOCK, let the mortgage rate float!

PANEL:
Down: 54%
Up: 23% Unchanged: 23%

In this week's RTI, just over half of the respondents said rates will fall, while about a fourth said rates will remain relatively unchanged (+/- 2 basis points from where they are now).

At the same time, the percentage of survey participants indicating rates will rise jumped to 23 from just 4 percent last week. That was the greatest percentage of "up" voters in more than two months.

Experts predicting lower rates cited continued economic softness and an expected drop in bond yields. But some said the Federal Reserve Board's rate cuts could energize stocks and the economy enough to drive rates higher.

Graph the trend for mortgages              Archive of Rate Trend Index columns

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COMMENTS:
"With economic reports showing the economy slowing, rates should drop more."
-- Jim Bradley, American Residential Lending Corp., Atlanta
RATE VOTE: Down

"Sustained economic softness will require further Fed action despite short-term upward rate pressure."
-- Neil Cribb, Mortgage Financial Network, Safety Harbor, Fla.
RATE VOTE: Down

"As the market continues to improve, money will flow out of bonds into stocks. The rates will continue to grind higher. Lock ASAP. Fed easing will only help stocks and hurt our rates!"
-- Brian Peart, Nexus Financial Group, Atlanta
RATE VOTE: Up


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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys more than 100 experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel is comprised of banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel is comprised of mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who are actively engaged in providing residential first mortgages to the end consumer. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS:
"Ignore the short-term volatility and focus on the longer-term trends: a slowing economy and the need for further Fed rate cuts. Don't lock in a rate now that is higher than what you've already passed up. Further rate declines are on the horizon."
-- Greg McBride, financial analyst, Bankrate.com
RATE VOTE: Down
More interest rate analyses from Greg McBride

"Corporate announcements of layoffs, production shutdowns and other problems suggest economic reports will look ugly for the next couple months. On the other hand, Fed rate cuts could be the dose of medicine the economy needs to pick back up soon. While market watchers debate whether things will get better or worse, there's a risk mortgage rates could remain relatively stable or tick up slightly from week to week. But I suspect they'll fall further over the longer term."
-- Michael D. Larson, mortgage writer, Bankrate.com
RATE VOTE: Down
More mortgage analyses from Michael D. Larson
More mortgage stories from Bankrate.com

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