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Rate Trend Index
  Each week, Bankrate.com surveys mortgage experts to gauge the state of mortgage rates over the next 30 to 45 days: Will rates rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged?

Don't lock inThis week (Dec. 20 - Dec. 27) the experts say:
DON'T LOCK, let the mortgage rate float!

PANEL:
Down: 70%
Up: 10% Unchanged: 20%

In this week's RTI, 70 percent of the survey's respondents said rates will fall, vs. only 10 percent who say they will rise. The remaining fifth think rates will remain relatively unchanged (+/- 2 basis points from where they are now).

As in the past several weeks, participants said the slowing economy will force the Federal Reserve Board to cut rates. That, in turn, should send mortgage rates lower. A couple of respondents said loan rates have already dropped far enough to reflect the economy's current state.

Graph the trend for mortgages                     Archive of Rate Trend Index columns

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COMMENTS:
"The Fed will be lowering rates in the coming months. The only thing that can stop lower rates is a tax cut."
-- Jerry Gordon, Greater Atlanta Mortgage, Atlanta
RATE VOTE: Down

"Interest rates have made their move until after the first of the year."
-- Jack Dunn, Jefferson Mortgage, Dallas
RATE VOTE: Unchanged

Ready to buy? Save money by using our mortgage rate search tables to find the best deal.

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About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys more than 100 experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel is comprised of banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel is comprised of mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who are actively engaged in providing residential first mortgages to the end consumer. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released each Wednesday. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.

BANKRATE'S ANALYSTS:
"The Fed's signal of forthcoming rate cuts, combined with continued volatility in the equity markets, will keep investor demand for bonds at a high level. This will push bond yields, and mortgage rates, even lower."
-- Greg McBride, financial analyst, Bankrate.com
RATE VOTE: Down
More interest rate analyses from Greg McBride

"The carnage continues in both the stock market and the real economy. Share prices are plunging. More companies are warning about slowing sales and profits. Larger numbers of workers are getting laid off. From a mortgage hunter's perspective, that's good news and rates should keep slipping."
-- Michael D. Larson, mortgage writer, Bankrate.com
RATE VOTE: Down
More mortgage analyses from Michael D. Larson
More mortgage stories from Bankrate.com

-- Posted: Nov. 29, 2001
Let Bankrate e-mail you when rates change! Click here
See Also
Rate Trend Index:
Find out which way rates are headed
The 10 biggest home-buying mistakes
When NOT to refinance
Track prime rate/other leading rate indexes
Mortgage glossary
More mortgage stories

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National Mortgage Rates
OVERNIGHT AVERAGES
Rates may include points.
30 yr fixed mtg 4.96%
15 yr fixed mtg 4.53%
5/1 jumbo ARM 4.78%



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