Let's see. The stock market's crashing. Companies are warning left and right about lower earnings. The Middle East peace process is imploding. And the latest inflation news for September shows prices are rising for everything from gasoline to clothes to cigarettes.

When exactly did things start falling apart? Your guess is as good as mine. But the more important question from a mortgage hunter's perspective is, "Just what exactly does this chaos mean for loan rates and home shopping?"

Let's analyze the various forces and their impact one by one:

1. Stock market swoon -- positive. Investors tend to flock to U.S. Treasury bonds when stocks plummet and that helps hold down interest rates on mortgages.
2. Company warnings -- positive. Signs that the economy is slowing will help prevent further Federal Reserve Board rate hikes and could prompt cuts sometime early next year.
3. Middle East turmoil -- from an interest rate perspective, positive. While no one wants the bloodshed to continue, social turmoil temporarily sends investors into bonds the same way stock market problems do, and further flare-ups could hold rates down.
4. Inflation reports -- negative. The latest Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports showed big jumps in inflation at the wholesale and retail levels of the economy. The so-called "core" indexes, which strip out the impact of food and oil price shifts, didn't look much better. In fact, the core CPI rose 0.3 percent in September, its fastest rate of increase since March.

So rates are falling and now's the time to buy a house, right?

Maybe, but proceed with caution.

When companies warn on profits, layoffs usually aren't far behind. Indeed, many firms that came out with earnings warnings over the past couple of weeks announced job cuts at the same time. People who aren't sure whether they'll be employed next year should think seriously about waiting to buy until the future becomes clearer. Otherwise, they could just end up defaulting 12 months down the road.

Consumers who are in a position to purchase homes should consider converting some of their stock market holdings into cash, especially if they have a significant portion of their savings in mutual fund or company shares.

That way, they'll have some emergency money that isn't going to disappear if the market drops further that they can tap to cover a couple of months worth of mortgage payments.

As for people who took out home loans back in the spring, they should keep a close eye on what rates do over the next few months. The average 30-year mortgage rate has fallen to 7.82 now from 8.69 percent back in May according to Bankrate.com data.

That's the lowest since last November and almost enough of a decline for refinancing to make sense, especially to borrowers who plan on staying in their homes for a few years. If the economy heads south, they'll be glad they took the time to research rates because their payments will be less of a burden.

The Bankrate.com National Index is based on a Wednesday survey of the 50 largest banks and the 50 largest thrifts in the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the country. These are averages. To find specific rates offered by lenders, go to our mortgage rate search engine.