Things have heated up in the oil patch again. Gas costs more than $2 a gallon in parts of the Midwest and politicians are clamoring for a solution (something that's never a good sign).

But just like three months ago, relief for aggrieved sport utility vehicle owners may be on the way. Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently decided that nobody wins when it costs more than $30 for a barrel of crude, so they have agreed to raise output for the second time this year. As a result, fuel shouldn't get expensive enough to spur inflation to such a level that mortgage hunters will feel a big pinch.

This scenario has a familiar ring to it because we saw the same thing happen in March. That's when OPEC last met in Vienna and decided to boost production by about 7.5 percent. The increase helped drive oil prices down to the mid-$20 range from more than $34 a barrel, as measured by futures trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Since then, however, prices have climbed back. On June 20, a barrel of oil was going for slightly more than $33 again.

So why does this matter for home shoppers? Consider that part of the reason the stock market collapsed in mid-April and 30-year fixed mortgage rates got within shouting distance of 9 percent in May was a much worse-than-expected Consumer Price Index inflation report released on April 14. It showed the inflation rate accelerating, thanks in large part to soaring oil prices.

The report for June, which comes out July 18, will probably show the same thing happening again. But OPEC demonstrated June 21 that it's willing to increase production quotas, too -- this time by slightly more than 2.5 percent. Any "oil shock" should therefore be temporary and anticipated and that means mortgage rates probably won't register more than a mild blip up.

Still, size matters when it comes to output. If market watchers don't think OPEC's production increase is enough to alleviate the global imbalance between supply and demand, prices won't fall much, if at all. That outcome doesn't seem likely, but mortgage hunters (and Lincoln Navigator drivers) could be left worrying about oil yet again this September, when OPEC is next scheduled to meet.

Because of this uncertainty, people may want to lock in now. Rates have fallen so far this month on evidence the economy is slowing and that's given borrowers a much-needed break. But renewed inflation concern fueled (clever, huh?) by oil concerns could cause them to tick back up, at least temporarily.

The Bankrate.com National Index is based on a Wednesday survey of the 50 largest banks and the 50 largest thrifts in the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the country. These are averages. To find specific rates offered by lenders, go to our mortgage rate search engine.