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Fed News   Fed announcement: Oct. 29, 2008
  The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee cut the federal funds rate today.  
  When will today's decision hit your wallet?  
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The heavens are smiling down upon first-time homebuyers, according to Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans.

"If you're a first-time homebuyer, the celestial stars have aligned for you," Walters says.

The Federal Reserve decided this time to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. The announcement is unlikely to impact mortgage rates significantly.

However, what might have more of an impact is the federal government's recent move to take over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which already has caused mortgage rates to plunge by about a half-percent.

Mortgage rates fell because the government bailout reassured nervous investors that Fannie and Freddie will not be allowed to fail. This has eliminated a "risk premium" that kept rates artificially high, Walters says.

"A half a point is a lot," Walters says. "You think of someone with a $200,000 mortgage, that's saving them a $1,000 a year. That's a big deal. It also means some people can qualify who couldn't have qualified before."

First-time homebuyers who can put down a substantial down payment should find entry-level bargains in many markets across the county, he says.

"I can't underscore (enough) how people 10, 15, 20 years from now will say, 'Yeah, I was one of the lucky ones. I was able to buy when the world was on sale,'" Walters says.

No surprise
Walters is not surprised the Fed decided to hold rates steady, especially in light of this weekend's trio of shocks to the financial system -- the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers, the sale of financial services firm Merrill Lynch and the turmoil surrounding one of the world's biggest insurance companies, American International Group.

A slowing economy and declining commodity prices have eased inflation concerns, allowing the Fed to keep interest rates low "in a market that needs all the liquidity it can get," Walters says.

"These are very difficult times," he says. "We just don't know what's going to happen next. I think there are more large institutions that will either fail or will be acquired."

Although inflation concerns may be ebbing, worries remain about how long tight credit conditions might persist, Walters says.

"This is going to take a substantial amount of time to work through," he says. "People love the baseball analogy and say, 'What inning is this?' I don't know, but it's probably closer to the middle than the beginning of the end."

Peter Tatian, a senior research associate with the Urban Institute, says tight credit has prevented some borrowers from taking advantage of growing affordability in many housing markets.

"Prices have been going down in a lot of places, or at least not going up as fast," says Tatian, who specializes in national and local housing policy. "So on that side, from an affordability side, it's maybe a positive thing for people who want to buy. But still, if you can't get a loan, then that's not going to help you too much."

However, Tatian sees a silver lining in today's gloom. He says the new challenges of landing a loan are part of a necessary return to more sound lending practices.

"It's probably going to take more work now than it used to, but in way that's a good thing, because I think a lot of the bad actors have been removed from the market," he says. "I think the options out there may be fewer, but there are probably better choices than what people might have seen a couple of years ago."

Walters also sees reason for hope. He says stock market declines have been relatively modest over the past two weeks despite such seismic events as the government bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the bankruptcy of Lehman.

The fact that the stock market hasn't collapsed -- at least thus far -- is an indicator that "the collective wisdom of the people who buy and sell stocks every day is that we can work this through," Walters says.

"Everything was just stuck; you're now seeing things starting to work out," he says. "You're seeing the winners and losers emerge, you're seeing people taking responsibility for assets, you're seeing things start to move. And that's a good thing."

Opportunity abounds
As Americans wait for credit conditions to improve, opportunity abounds for savvy home shoppers, Walters says.

Mortgage rates are likely to hover "in a high 5 percent or low 6 percent rate" range for the foreseeable future now that the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac risk premium has been eliminated, Walters says.

"I think this risk premium is permanently gone, so that's a plus," he says.

Lower rates and falling home prices should make homes more affordable, especially for first-time buyers who can put down a substantial down payment, Walters says.

The news is more mixed for current homeowners looking to trade up to a bigger home, especially if they owe more on their mortgage than the home's current worth.

"For people who own homes, it's a double-edged sword," Walters says. "They can go buy a home and get that deal of the century, but then they've got to sell their home. And if they are upside down, that creates a problem, obviously."

Homeowners looking to refinance also should not delay, he says.

"To me, 'sooner rather than later' is the message," Walters says. "Because if they wait and credit standards tighten further, they may find themselves unable to refinance."

Meanwhile, Tatian urges home shoppers with less than sterling finances to remain hopeful.

"For people who are eligible, there are still some of the subsidized home purchase programs for first-time homebuyers and for others that are operating in many parts of the county," Tatian says.

He also suggests tapping the wisdom of experts if you feel overwhelmed by all the challenges of today's market.

"For people who feel unsure about things, getting some kind of counseling or help with home buying and what to look for in a loan would be a useful thing to do," Tatian says.

Take-away
Call it a hat trick: For the third straight meeting, the Federal Reserve has left the federal funds rate unchanged.

The central bank's rate decisions do not have a direct impact on mortgage rates, so potential borrowers should not worry about how Fed inaction will impact their loan.

However, home shoppers may find lower mortgage rates as the result of another development -- the federal government's decision to take the reins at mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Bankrate's rate tables can help you compare mortgage rates in your area.

Bankrate can also help you calculate whether a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage is better for you.

To determine whether refinancing is right for you, use Bankrate's mortgage calculator.

-- Posted: Sept. 16, 2008
 

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