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Translating what the Fed said

Fed Alert Every time the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets, it issues an explanatory statement. We realize that you understand perfectly well what the Fed's statement means. You don't need a translation into English. Nope, not you. But your brother-in-law sure could use some help in understanding what the heck the Fed is trying to say. Send this to him. You don't need to read it, though. You understand Fedspeak like it's your native language. No problemo.

What the Fed said:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent.

What it meant:
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee left the short-term federal funds rate at 1.25 percent.

What the Fed said:
Recent readings on production and employment, though mostly reflecting decisions made before the conclusion of hostilities, have proven disappointing. However, the ebbing of geopolitical tensions has rolled back oil prices, bolstered consumer confidence and strengthened debt and equity markets. These developments, along with the accommodative stance of monetary policy and ongoing growth in productivity, should foster an improving economic climate over time.

What it meant:
In the past six weeks, industrial production has fallen and unemployment has risen. That disappointing news has been tempered by the fact that those things happened before the war ended, which is what you might expect. The end of the Iraq war has allowed oil prices to fall, and consumer confidence is up, and the stock and bond markets haven't done too badly lately. When you take those fresh pieces of good news and add them to low interest rates and stir with increased worker productivity, you have a recipe for a tasty, satisfying economy.

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What the Fed said:
Although the timing and extent of that improvement remain uncertain, the Committee perceives that over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal. In contrast, over the same period, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level. The Committee believes that, taken together, the balance of risks to achieving its goals is weighted toward weakness over the foreseeable future.

What it meant:
Honestly, we think the economy will improve sometime. Don't try to pin us down on exactly when we think it will happen. And we see that there's about a 50-50 chance that the economy will get better or worse over the next few months. At the same time, there's a small chance that inflation actually will get too low. (When inflation is too low, people stop buying things for fear that prices might later drop, like that guy in the Best Buy commercial who wants a large-screen TV.) Overall, we believe that there is a risk that the economy will weaken.

What the Fed said:
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry.

What it meant:
The vote was unanimous.

 

-- Posted: May 6, 2003
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