Translating what the Fed said
By Bankrate.com
Every time the rate-setting Federal Open Market
Committee meets, it issues an explanatory statement. We realize
that you understand perfectly well what the Fed's statement means.
You don't need a translation into English. Nope, not you. But your
brother-in-law sure could use some help in understanding what the
heck the Fed is trying to say. Send this to him. You don't need
to read it, though. You understand Fedspeak like it's your native
language. No problemo.
What the Fed said:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target
for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent.
What it meant:
The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee left the short-term
federal funds rate at 1.25 percent.
What the Fed said:
Recent readings on production and employment, though mostly
reflecting decisions made before the conclusion of hostilities,
have proven disappointing. However, the ebbing of geopolitical tensions
has rolled back oil prices, bolstered consumer confidence and strengthened
debt and equity markets. These developments, along with the accommodative
stance of monetary policy and ongoing growth in productivity, should
foster an improving economic climate over time.
What it meant:
In the past six weeks, industrial production has fallen
and unemployment has risen. That disappointing news has been tempered
by the fact that those things happened before the war ended, which
is what you might expect. The end of the Iraq war has allowed oil
prices to fall, and consumer confidence is up, and the stock and
bond markets haven't done too badly lately. When you take those
fresh pieces of good news and add them to low interest rates and
stir with increased worker productivity, you have a recipe for a
tasty, satisfying economy.
What the Fed said:
Although the timing and extent of that improvement remain
uncertain, the Committee perceives that over the next few quarters
the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth
are roughly equal. In contrast, over the same period, the probability
of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds
that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level. The Committee
believes that, taken together, the balance of risks to achieving
its goals is weighted toward weakness over the foreseeable future.
What it meant:
Honestly, we think the economy will improve sometime. Don't
try to pin us down on exactly when we think it will happen. And
we see that there's about a 50-50 chance that the economy will get
better or worse over the next few months. At the same time, there's
a small chance that inflation actually will get too low. (When inflation
is too low, people stop buying things for fear that prices might
later drop, like that guy in the Best Buy commercial who wants a
large-screen TV.) Overall, we believe that there is a risk that
the economy will weaken.
What the Fed said:
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan,
Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke;
Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.;
Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow;
Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry.
What it meant:
The vote was unanimous.
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