Best moves to make after a Fed rate
cut
By Bankrate.com
The Federal Reserve Board has slashed interest
rates again -- but does that mean you should rush out and refinance
your mortgage? Get a new credit card? Buy a car?
Whoa. Take a breath. The Fed's moves ripple
through the economy in different ways at different times. Here's
a look at what current rates are, how the Fed affects them, and
the best moves to make.
We'll look at the following
consumer products:
All of the tips and figures come from Bankrate.com's
staff of financial experts and database of consumer interest rates.
Fixed-rate mortgages:
Rates on fixed-rate mortgages are at a three-year
low -- and could fall further if the economy continues to erode.
Long-term mortgage rates follow changes in long-term
bond yields (which move up and down daily based on what various
indicators and reports say about the state of the economy), not
changes in the federal funds rate, which is one of only two rates
the Fed controls directly. Many Wall Street experts have confidence
that the Fed's aggressive rate cuts will eventually lead to an improving
economy.
Lately, Wall Street optimism crashed headlong into
negative economic reports. That gloom pushed 30-year fixed rates
to a three-year low of 6.52 percent in Bankrate's weekly national
mortgage rate survey. That's the lowest since October of 1998. Fifteen-year
fixed mortgages average 5.98 percent.
Best move now: Any
time you can get a 30-year loan for less than 7 percent, you should
consider locking in. Rates have a fair chance of rising by the end
of the year or early 2002. The short-term outlook may have economists
gnashing their teeth, but all the Fed's cuts should eventually have
an impact.
That means time is running short for people who want
to refinance at today's hisorically low rates.
Here's another bit of advice: Know
what you can afford in a home and a loan, and don't take a deal
that won't work for your budget. When you're ready to buy, try the
Bankrate.com
mortgage search engine to locate the best deal
.
Adjustable-rate mortgages:
ARM rates started responding to the Fed's aggressive rate cuts earlier
this year. That's because they tend to follow changes in short-term
rates, such as the yields on short-term Treasury bills and notes
(which track the federal funds rate closely). With the Fed unlikely
to raise rates anytime soon, ARM rates should stay low or even go
lower over the next couple of months.
Best move now:
Someone who plans to live in a house for only a couple of years
might want to consider a short-term ARM now that rates on such loans
have fallen. The same holds true for someone who needs a little
extra help getting into a home. But fixed rates are very low by
historical standards. Borrowers with a longer-term horizon should
probably lock in a low rate for 30 years rather than get an ARM
with a rate that can head in only one direction -- up.
One-year ARMs averaged 5.44 percent on Oct.
31 in the Bankrate.com national weekly survey. Click
here to search for the best ARM rates in your area.
Home equity loans:
Home equity loan rates tend to follow the prime rate, though rates
on longer-term loans (those with terms of 10 years or 15 years,
for instance) behave more like long-term, fixed-rate mortgage rates.
Because the prime rate changes within a day or two of a Fed cut,
many new home equity loan customers will start seeing lower rates
shortly thereafter. Existing borrowers, however, won't see an impact
because equity loans have fixed payments
and rates.
Best move now:
Earlier this year, we advised borrowers to hold off taking out home
equity loans on the expectation the Fed would keep cutting rates.
The rationale was simple: When the Fed is cutting rates, equity
loan borrowers can get lower rates by waiting until the end of the
rate-cutting cycle.
That end may be at hand -- which makes the next
few weeks an ideal time to lock in a low equity loan rate. If you
can afford to borrow, wait a few more days for banks to adjust their
rates to reflect the latest Fed cut, then pounce! You'll find the
lowest rates on the shortest-term loans (say, three to five years).
Equity loan rates averaged 8.56 percent on Oct.
31. Use Bankrate's equity
loan search engine to find the best rates in your area.
Home equity lines of
credit: Both new and existing line of
credit customers are paying significantly less to borrow today than
they were in 2000. That's because most equity lines of credit feature
variable rates and payments tied to the prime rate, which declines
whenever the Fed cuts rates. The prime rate is probably close to
bottoming out, though, after falling so much this year. So don't
expect your HELOC rate to hit 3 percent.
Best move now:
While home equity lines of credit, rather than loans, were the better
option for borrowers earlier this year, that may not be the case
any more. Because the Fed has cut rates so many times already, it
may want to stop soon and let those cuts work their magic.
Borrowers should give banks a bit of time to
adjust their rates to reflect the Fed's latest cut, and then lock
in low fixed-rate equity loans. After all, if you get a variable-rate
line of credit when rates are at or near a nadir, your risk of higher
rates and payments in the future rises substantially.
At the same time, the prime rate could stay
low for a longer-than-expected period. The last severe rate-cutting
cycle took the federal funds rate to 3 percent in September 1992.
Because the economy took a long time to rebound, the Fed didn't
start hiking the funds rate again until February 1994. If the same
scenario plays out this time around, customers who get lines of
credit won't see their rates increase for a long time.
Equity line of credit rates averaged 6.116 percent
on Oct. 31. Click
here to search for the best home equity line of credit.
Credit cards:
Experts say about 70 percent of all credit cards are variable-rate
cards, and most of those are linked to the Wall Street Journal
prime rate, which usually falls the day after the Fed cuts rates.
Because many variable-rate cards are re-priced
each quarter, many card customers had to wait until April to enjoy
lower rates stemming from the three interest-rate cuts in the first
quarter of 2001. And they had to wait until July and October for
the rate cuts in the second and third quarters to kick in. The most
recent rate cut will be a New Year's present in January, 2002. So
these folks will have to be patient, yet again.
Other credit card customers are more fortunate.
Their variable cards are re-priced monthly. These customers will
see their rates drop very quickly by the same amount the Fed decreased
rates.
Still, with all the rate cuts this year, some
card customers have hit the minimum annual percentage rates allowed
in their cardholder agreements. The interest rates on their cards
won't drop any lower. Of the variable cards Bankrate.com surveys,
26 percent have floors, and 19 percent have reached the floor. Be
sure to check your cardholder agreement to see if your card has
a floor, and whether you've hit it.
Best move now:
Consider transferring a balance to a low, variable-rate credit card.
A variable-rate card that beats the rates on any other card in your
wallet will be an even better deal should the Fed cut rates again.
The average rate on a standard variable-rate card was 13.80 percent
on Oct. 31; the average rate on a standard fixed-rate card was 14.17
percent. Compare credit cards using Bankrate's credit
card search engine.
Car loans:
Bankrate.com research shows that interest rates on new-car loans
tend to shift in lock step with the prime rate. If the Fed cuts rates,
the prime rate drops and rates on auto loans from financial institutions
soon follow suit.
Not all car loans are tied to the prime rate,
however. Even with a drop in interest rates, few banks and finance
companies will be able to match the zero-percent
financing deals available from captive finance companies of
auto manufacturers, such as Ford Motor Credit and General Motors
Acceptance Corp.
Best move now:
If you're arranging financing for a new car, don't ignore dealer
financing. Auto manufacturers are rolling out the deals in an attempt
to bolster auto sales.
If you have an outstanding car loan, you may
want to consider refinancing. Keep in mind that used-car loans are
slower to follow the prime rate's moves and may not change for a
month or two. Even when a shift in rates occurs, it may be less
than the prime rate swing.
Rates on 48-month new-car loans averaged 8.66
percent on Oct. 31, while rates on three-year used-car loans averaged
9.71 percent. Search
here for car loans in your area.
CDs, savings accounts,
money market funds: Interest rates have
fallen off a cliff.
Best move now:
Shop carefully before you buy. Check Bankrate.com for the best CD
rates across the country, then look for the best money market rates.
Be sure to check Internet banks -- they offer some of the highest
rates around.
Short-term rates will continue to drop, while
long-term (one-year or longer) rates may drop a basis point or two
here and there, but are more stable than shorter-term CDs. Regardless,
CD rates have taken a pounding, and it will be a while before they
turn around. You may want to consider a money market fund: The rates
aren't great, but you're not locked in, either.
One-year CD yields averaged 2.43 percent on
Oct. 31, while money market account yields averaged 1.34 percent.
Click
here for CD rates in your area.
-- Posted: Nov. 6, 2001
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