Hot for a hybrid? 9 things to consider -- Page 2

Similar published tests of other hybrids show that while they get better fuel mileage than their gasoline counterparts, it's rarely going to be as high as the government sticker on the window says.

What about the environment?
Putting aside for a moment the size of any fuel savings, another appeal of hybrids is the promise that they are doing less damage to the environment than similar, gasoline-only vehicles.

Is that true?

Yes, but with a few caveats.

The EPA, concentrating on global warming, provides ratings for vehicles based on the amount of greenhouse gases produced in a year, expressed in tons. The more fuel a vehicle burns, the more greenhouse gases it emits. So hybrids, by their very nature, will emit fewer harmful gases.

Consider the Ford Escape Hybrid. The EPA estimates that it will produce 5.8 tons of greenhouse gases over a year when driven 15,000 miles. That compares to 8.2 tons for a similar gasoline-only Escape.

But that EPA estimate is based on the assumption that a driver will get an average of 33 mpg from the Escape Hybrid and an average of 23 mpg from the gasoline-only Escape. The amount of harmful emissions depends on your mileage, so it's possible that an individual's driving style could mean fewer greenhouse gas emissions in a gasoline-only Escape than that emitted from an Escape Hybrid whose driver always has the pedal to the metal.

And there's another -- as-yet-unexplored -- environmental issue with hybrids: What's to be done about recycling or disposal of those highly toxic battery packs when they wear out?

What about maintenance and durability?
As with any new technology, there are going to be questions about reliability, and so far there isn't enough real-world experience to know for sure how hybrids are going to fare over the long haul.

The gasoline engines in either the hybrid or gasoline-only vehicle should hold up equally -- it's the electric side of the equation that's uncertain. The most pressing question concerns the batteries that are essential to any hybrid. Even high-tech batteries have a limited lifespan when it comes to charging and recharging them.

Generally, the battery packs in hybrids are warranted for eight years or between 80,000 and 100,000 miles depending on the manufacturer. Beyond the warranty period, the manufacturers say they are confident the batteries will last much longer -- perhaps for the useful life of the car.

If you had to replace a battery pack today, and it was not covered by warranty, it would cost $2,000 to $4,000, but so far, no manufacturer has reported selling a replacement battery pack for its hybrid models.

Prices are expected to keep dropping, but how much they'll cost when they begin to wear out and are not covered by warranties is anyone's guess.

And, even if an owner gets 80,000 trouble-free miles from a hybrid, what will happen at trade-in time? How attractive will a used Prius, for example, be with 80,000 miles on the odometer and the original battery back still on board?

One small sign of problems may have already appeared. The federal government has opened an investigation into reports that about three dozen 2004-2005 Toyota Prius sedans have had their gasoline engine stall at highway speeds. No injuries were reported and no recall has been ordered.

Two good sources of information about hybrids can be found at Fueleconomy.gov, which is an EPA site, or at Hybridcars.com, which is an enthusiast site.

Are hybrids a good buy?
Based solely on the price of a gallon of gasoline, it makes no economic sense to buy a hybrid in comparison to the same vehicle with a gasoline-only engine.

Look at it this way: A Honda Civic Hybrid with a manual transmission carries a sticker price of $20,415. A comparable Honda Civic EX lists for $18,025. That puts the price difference between the two at $2,390.

Using the EPA fuel-mileage numbers, the Civic Hybrid should get, a combined city/highway, 47 mpg. The gasoline-only Civic should get 34 mpg, for a difference of 13 mpg.

Assume you drive 15,000 miles a year. The gasoline-only vehicle will consume 441 gallons in that distance (15,000 miles divided by 34 mpg is about 441). The hybrid will eat up 319 gallons (15,000 miles divided by 47 is about 319). The difference of 122 gallons, costing $2.50 per gallon, means the hybrid will save you $305 a year.

A sticker price differential of $2,390 means it would take almost eight years to break even ($2,390 divided by $305 is 7.8 years). Even if the cost of gasoline goes to $5 a gallon, the 122 gallon difference would save you $610 and it would still take almost four years ($2,390 divided by $610 is 3.9 years) to recoup the extra cost of the hybrid.

And that's a rosy scenario. The real-world numbers right now are even worse, because you can get a better discount off the list price on a gasoline-only Civic, while the Civic Hybrid is commanding near-list price.

What about tax incentives on hybrids?
True, tax breaks will offset some of the higher costs of a hybrid and reduce the time it would take to break even, but not by much.

If you buy one in 2005, the federal government allows a one-time $2,000 tax deduction, which would mean about $500 in the pocket of someone who's in the 25-percent tax bracket.

The highway bill passed recently, by Congress, changes the rules for hybrid vehicles bought between 2006 and 2010. Instead of a deduction, there would be a one-time tax credit of between $250 and $3,400, with the amount based on how fuel-efficient the vehicle is compared to a standard set in the law.

Further complicating matters is language in the bill that limits the tax breaks to only so many hybrids per manufacturer, which could benefit U.S. manufacturers just getting started selling hybrids and mean that the plentiful Toyota hybrids may not qualify after 2007.

Some states, particularly California, are offering their own incentives for going hybrid, including the right to cruise the carpool lane. But, as with the federal tax break, those free passes are limited in number, so latecomers to the hybrid revolution could be shut out.

What's the bottom line?
There are some good reasons to buy a hybrid vehicle. It can be less harmful to the environment, and as more people buy hybrids that will encourage manufacturers to further expand the technology which in time will bring down the cost.

It's also impressive technology, and some of the hybrid vehicles are fun to drive. The Prius also has the added, though subjective, benefit of cutting-edge sedan styling.

For performance junkies, some hybrids offer the added thrill of faster acceleration than their gasoline-only counterparts.

But if the dollars and cents of car ownership are your guiding principle, the hybrid revolution has not reached the point where it makes financial sense.

Terry Jackson is the author of six automotive books and has been writing about cars for 25 years. He is the former editor-in-chief of AMI Auto World Magazine and NOPI Street Performance Compact. He has also written for Automobile, Road & Track and AutoWeek. He evaluates as many as 100 new cars each year.