Crowded car lots drive good deals -- Page 2

Then find out what consumers are actually paying for the vehicle you want. Edmunds.com tracks something called "true market value." Keep in mind, that the market is "a living thing" that changes from day to day, from region to region and even varies by color, says Reed.

Compare the actual market price to the invoice price.

You also want to look at why a vehicle isn't selling. It might be something as simple as the fact that an updated design is coming out in a year or two, and buyers are waiting to get the latest thing. For some SUVs, sales started lagging when gas hit the $2 mark. If that's a concern, you may need to rethink your choice. Ditto if the model does poorly in crash tests or is associated with a higher than usual number of accidents. A deal is no deal if you're putting your family into something unsafe.

Shopping in a buyer's market
But if you've determined the reason for the lag in demand and you still want the car, now you have to shop price. Traditionally, if there is an oversupply, it's a buyer's market. You're in the driver's seat, so if you don't get a price you like from one dealer, go somewhere else.

If you've decided what model or models you want, one hopes you've already done the test drive.

What the pros recommend: Don't go back into the dealership. Instead, negotiate by e-mail or phone. You set the terms, and you control the time you spend. "If you go there, you've given up a certain amount of leverage," says Reed.

Clark Howard, consumer advocate and co-author of "Clark's Big Book of Bargains," agrees. "The only thing I want you to do at a dealership is test drive and take delivery," he says.

E-mail is probably the easiest. Most dealers have a Web site with an e-mail address. Tell them what model and options you want, let them know you're contacting several dealerships and ask for their best offer.

"You've put them on notice that they are competing," says Reed.

If you're negotiating by e-mail, you'll have a written transcript of any price quotes, which can come in handy. Be sure to get a complete description of the vehicle, with color, options and vehicle identification number, says Howard. That way, if someone tries to hedge on an offer, you've got everything in print.

Shopping by phone is trickier. Some dealers still don't like to give prices over the phone, and it's more difficult to document the quotes.

If you're negotiating by phone, have any price quotes, along with descriptions, faxed so that you have a paper trail.

And if the dealership tells you they only talk price face-to-face? "If they won't give you a price by phone, take them off your list," says Gillis.

"One of the biggest mistakes is we somehow perceive we can negotiate one-on-one with the dealer," says Gillis. "The only weapon we have is if we play two or three dealers against each other."

It's not the surplus itself that makes a good deal, says Gillis. The good deal comes from the moves you make because you realize there is a surplus.

Dana Dratch is a freelance writer based in Atlanta.