|
The Federal Reserve continues to steer a course through an economic
landscape with faltering housing and mortgage markets on one side and low unemployment
and stubbornly rising prices on the other side. The Fed left short-term interest rates alone in
the regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The federal
funds rate remains 5.25 percent, and the prime rate remains 8.25 percent. The
committee has left short-term rates alone since June, after it had raised rates
a quarter-point at a time in 17 meetings over two years.
Investors and economists had expected
the decision not to change rates, and they anxiously
awaited the Fed's rate policy statement for its
assessment of the economy. They mainly were watching
for any hint that the Fed was becoming less hawkish
about inflation. The answer: No, the Fed hasn't
changed its stance. It is still more worried about
inflation than anything else, even with problems
in the housing sector and the broader economy.
"Economic growth slowed in the first part
of this year and the adjustment in the housing
sector is ongoing," the Fed's statement said.
"Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to
expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.
"Core inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate
over time, the high level of resource utilization
has the potential to sustain those pressures.
"In these circumstances, the Committee's
predominant policy concern remains the risk that
inflation will fail to moderate as expected."
Some kinds of consumer loans, such as those for variable-rate credit cards and
home equity lines of credit, have interest rates that move up and down with the
prime rate. They will largely remain unchanged. The Fed's decision, and
the explanation for it, will exert more of an effect on long-term rates, especially
for mortgages. Rates on fixed-rate mortgages, auto loans and home equity loans
move up and down in response to market forces. And the Fed's explanations tend
to affect the market.
Falling home sales and prices have
been on the Fed's radar for a few months now.
"There's a conflicting problem with any rate
change," Anthony Sanders, professor of finance
and real estate at Arizona State University, said
before the Fed's announcement. "If they lower
rates, what they're worried about is increasing
inflation. But lowering rates could also cause
a surge in housing demand because of cheaper refinancings."
So lower rates would bring good news and bad news.
But if the Fed raised rates, "that
could be bad as well, because we have all these adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs)
that are set to reset this year and next year," Sanders adds. A Fed rate
hike would cause ARM rates to spike higher, and would cause "a real slowdown
in refinancings and cash-out" refinancings. That would slow the economy by
taking spending money out of people's pockets, and probably would harm stock prices,
too. From a housing and mortgage viewpoint, Sanders says, "I think
hanging tight on the rate right now was the wise decision." Bob Walters,
chief economist for Quicken Loans, agrees that the Fed is steering the right course.
"They know there's pain in the housing market, but they don't see any kind
of panic or a collapse," Walters says. "They see a lot of unwinding
of the speculation that was happening over the last couple of years, and they
don't want to help those speculators out." A rate cut would help the
speculators because a lot of them got ARMs, expecting to flip the houses profitably
before the ARMs reset. A lot of house speculators got burned, though, when they
discovered that they couldn't sell their investment properties without taking
big losses, and they were forced to hold onto the houses even as their ARMs reset
and they had to make bigger payments. The Fed's rate-setting Open Market
Committee meets eight times a year. The last time the panel met, March 21, it
observed that "adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing" while worrying
that "readings on core inflation have been somewhat elevated." Then,
as now, those balancing concerns convinced the central bank to leave rates alone.
The Fed controls the federal funds rate indirectly, by selling and buying securities
to add and subtract cash from the banking system. The prime rate is 3 percentage
points higher, and moves up and down with the federal funds rate. |