The Federal Reserve is doing its part to hold interest rates steady.
The Fed's Open Market Committee
kept its target for the federal funds rate unchanged
today, at 2 percent. The prime rate will remain
5 percent. Home equity lines of credit and most
variable-rate credit cards are indexed to the
prime rate, so their rates will remain unchanged.
Long-term interest rates, such as those paid on
fixed-rate mortgages, are governed by market forces
and don't necessarily follow the Fed's lead.
Fed stands pat |
2%
The Federal Reserve keeps the
federal funds rate the same.
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Among economists, the consensus is that the Fed
won't change short-term rates until late this
year or early next year -- and when that time
comes, the central bank will raise rates to combat
inflation. In the meantime, the Fed's preferred
inflation-fighting weapon will be "jawboning,"
or "trying to talk inflation down instead
of doing something about it," in the wry
words of Kenneth Thomas, finance lecturer at the
University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
In a statement explaining its interest rate
policy, the Fed said tight credit, the slumping
housing market and higher fuel prices will weigh
on economic growth in the next few quarters. It
added: "Inflation has been high, spurred
by the earlier increases in the prices of energy
and some other commodities, and some indicators
of inflation expectations have been elevated."
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed,
cast a dissenting vote. He wanted to raise the
federal funds rate.
No one was surprised by the Fed's
decision to keep rates steady. The central bank
likes to foreshadow rate changes, and did nothing
of the sort over the past few weeks. Fed officials
have been in wait-and-see mode for months as the
economy has slowed down while, at the same time,
prices have risen swiftly.
Rate hawks vs. doves
During times of economic slowdown, the Fed usually
cuts interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending.
During times of inflation, the Fed usually raises
interest rates to make it more expensive to borrow.
Then there are times like now, when it appears that
the economy is headed toward recession while inflation
gathers speed.
Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National
City Corp., says the Fed's decision to keep rates
unchanged reflects "a compromise between
the desire to raise interest rates to thwart inflation
pressures and concern about the economy still
being on shaky legs. Basically, it's a tradeoff
between inflation mitigation and securing economic
growth -- and the two forces seem to be reasonably
well-balanced at this point."
The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee
has a few members who are believed to be less
hesitant to raise rates. These "inflation
hawks" include Fisher and Charles Plosser,
president of the Philadelphia Fed. Other members
of the rate-setting panel might not be exactly
doves, but they don't appear to be eager to raise
rates when the economy might be slipping into
recession.
"Clearly, there are concerns about inflation,
but the biggest concern has to be about the recession
I believe we're in," Thomas says. If inflation
takes off next year, the inflation hawks will
be in a position to say "I told you so,"
Thomas acknowledges.
"But we have to do first things first,"
he adds. "When we have a serious problem,
we have to put out the fire. Then we can go in
and salvage things and so forth. Inflation, in
my mind, is not the fire here. Now the fire is
clearly the recession, the housing market, the
credit crunch. These are the big issues."
The rate-setting committee meets eight times
a year. Last fall, the Fed began cutting rates
aggressively in response to the credit crunch
that's still roiling mortgage markets and is now
causing trouble in credit card markets. The federal
funds rate plunged from 5.25 percent to 2 percent
from September to April. At 2 percent, the federal
funds rate is at its lowest since late 2004.
The next meeting of the FOMC is Sept. 16.
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