Mortgage Rate Trend Index

From a purely technical standpoint, rates should be going up. However, the government's ownership of the the two biggest dogs in lending, i.e., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, make it nearly inconceivable high rates will rear their ugly heads during this crisis. To add even more "salt to the soup," we have the roller coaster known as the securities markets. Strange times, my friend. Strange times.
Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser/president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla.

New liquidity created by (the) bailout plan and weak numbers in employment will increase demand in mortgage-backed decurities.
Sean Rafferty, author of BayAreaMortgageReport.com, San Jose, Calif.

The 10-year Treasury is currently at 3.74 percent. It has been a very bumpy week in the interest rate market. As the bailout takes shape, we will see the market settle and interest rates head back down to the level we saw a few weeks ago.
Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles

Stock market valuation swings, combined with (the) market estimate of future volatility spiking to all-time highs (VIX), have produced a volatile period for the debt markets, but mortgages through all of this have remained fairly even, moving in pace as expected. Consider however, (a) 1-point movement in price (or an increase of 22 bps, 0.22 percent) is no small move for mortgages, but on a relative basis, nothing has been shocking. So while movements may be large net change after the smoke clears, we should see rate moderation for the next few weeks.
Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C.

With the bailout plan still up in the air (and) consumer sentiment down, we will have to restore confidence in international investors to buy securities, which will drive rates down.
Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago

Defeat of the government rescue plan earlier this week really threw the financial markets for a loop. Ordinarily we would have expected the mortgage bond market to be the beneficiary of this uncertainty, but it was not the case. While mortgage rates are slightly higher this week than last, this should be tempered by Friday's unemployment report, which is expected to show a continued rise in unemployment. Remember, bad economic news is typically good news for mortgage bonds. Until next time, strap on your seat belt and enjoy the ride!
David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich.

Expect a stock market bounce to pull dollars from mortgage bonds, pushing rates higher.
Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati

It is easy to get slap-happy at a time such as this and say something like "There is a 50 percent chance that mortgages will exist in four to six weeks" but I will not do that. Assuming that Congress passes the liquidity bill, there will be two forces driving mortgage interest rates in opposite directions. The liquidity created by this bill will massively increase banks' ability to lend. This will drive rates lower. On the other hand, the techs are signaling that they are overbought to the extreme, which should send Treasury yields higher. Thus we may likely see the oddity of Treasury yields increasing while mortgage rates fall. One more point: The end of (the) investment bank model on Wall Street also means the end of practically every player in the jumbo MBS market. If jumbo mortgages are going to reappear, it will take some new calculus to securitize them.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco

Rates should improve off a stabilizing market and weak jobs report.
Barry Habib, CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J.

I see economic news continuing to show weakness, which should lead to lower mortgage rates. The big question is: What type of package will Washington get passed and how will the markets respond? Also, 45 days from now, we will know who will be sitting in the White House for the next four years. So while I say lower, it is based solely on economic sentiment, and that is likely to take a back seat to other events as they unfold over the next few weeks. Bottom line, when you can get a rate that works for you, lock it and don't look back.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.

Mortgage spreads widened considerably when the rescue package was initially defeated, but will narrow again once a settlement is reached.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com

Might as well guess rates by throwing at a dartboard. Signs of recession are getting clearer, so I'm predicting that there will be a corresponding drop in rates. My confidence in this forecast? Low.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com