30-year mortgage rises 5th week in a row
By Holden Lewis • Bankrate.com

Seesawing economic news has created uncertainty about where the Fed will take interest rates, and that's helping drive mortgage rates higher.

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage pushed ahead for the fifth week in a row. It now stands at 6.64 percent, up 7 basis points over last week, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.38 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 5.85 percent. This is the highest the 30-year fixed rate has been since June 12, 2002, when it was 6.74 percent.

The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 4 basis points to 6.27 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage jumped 12 basis points to 6.31 percent.

If you're shopping for a mortgage right now, you might fall prey to what I call "supermarket syndrome." Do you tend to end up in the longest checkout line? It's not just your imagination. The longest line has the most people standing in it, and thus, it has the largest percentage of the supermarket's customers. Naturally, that means that you have a higher probability of ending up in the longest line than in a shorter line.

It's human nature to chafe at this reality and to wonder why everyone ends up at the supermarket at the same time you do. But they're thinking the same thing about you. Yes, you're unique -- just like everybody else.

Now let's say you're shopping for a house. Get in line -- lots of other people are shopping for houses, too. That's partly what bugs bond traders. Demand for housing remains stronger than they expected, and that implies that sales of appliances, fuel, furniture, paint and myriad other goods and services will be better than expected, too. That could cause prices to rise, and long-term mortgage rates are sensitive to bond traders' inflation expectations.

On top of that, consumers tell pollsters that they feel confident. The Conference Board's consumer sentiment index rose to 109.6 this month -- the highest since May 2002. Apparently, much of the grumbling at the gas pump is good-natured.

Economists and the bond market had expected the consumer sentiment index to fall in April, not for it to rise to a four-year high.

Likewise, they thought that home resales had declined in March. Instead, the National Association of Realtors reported this week that used-home sales nudged upward in March to an annual rate of 6.92 million units. It wasn't much of an increase over February's annual rate of 6.9 million units, but it was enough for investors to take note.

Rates on 15- and 30-year mortgages tend to move up and down with 10-year Treasury notes. After the consumer confidence and used-home sales reports were released Tuesday morning, the 10-year yield jumped 8 basis points, to 5.07 percent -- the highest it had finished the day since June 10, 2002.

Bond bulls are investors who expected softer home sales numbers and, therefore, lower bond yields, resulting in lower interest rates. (They're bulls because when bond yields drop, bond prices rise.)

"The bulls basically hoped for a number showing housing is eroding, and they didn't get it," says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans. "I'm not surprised. As long as jobs are strong -- as long as interest rates are low -- this isn't going to change."

Mortgage rates were rising in March, although they were still attractively low by historical standards, says Randy Pickard, vice president of marketing at iNest. Maybe the combination of low but rising rates made procrastinators jump off the fence and make offers on houses.

As far as the higher-than-expected consumer sentiment, Pickard says: "People have jobs, and jobs seem to be reasonably plentiful." With the U.S. population growing by about 3 million a year, and with the job market improving, Pickard expects real estate to remain strong for a long time.

Wednesday's release of the report on new home sales in March cemented this week's rise in mortgage rates. Economist and investors polled by Briefing.com had expected the report to show that new homes were sold at an annual rate of 1.1 million last month, but the number turned out 10 percent higher than that, at an annual rate of 1.213 million.