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Here's what the study says: At
a 4 percent withdrawal rate, a portfolio stands
a 25 percent chance of running out of money before
30 years elapses if it is composed entirely of
bonds. Ironically, the risk-averse looking for
safety in bonds may discover these investments
to be stranglers.
A portfolio with a 4 percent annual
withdrawal rate and a 16 percent allocation to
stocks has a 10 percent chance of running out
of assets prematurely. A 40 percent to 60 percent
stock allocation is optimal, reducing the probability
of running out of money to 6 percent.
That study also shows how using other rates of withdrawal can make or break a portfolio, given various stock/bond allocations. I encourage you to read it. It's definitely a page-turner that just might keep you up nights.
Mutual funds that send you monthly checks
To address baby boomers' need for help with retirement income, a couple of mutual fund firms have come to the rescue. They're
offering funds that generate stable income streams using varying strategies.
Fidelity Income Replacement funds, which are composed of several Fidelity funds, are designed to pay out regular income streams
intended to last for a specific number of years. Currently they sport dates ranging from 2016 to 2036 in two-year intervals.
So if you buy Fidelity Income Replacement 2016 fund, you'll get about 11.15 percent of the fund's assets paid out to you each year
until 2016, at which point the fund's assets will be depleted. Fidelity Income Replacement 2036 fund initially generates annual
payments of about 5.09 percent, and these payouts, if all goes according to plan, will increase to keep pace with inflation until
2036, when the money is scheduled to run out. The annual expense ratios of these funds range from 0.54 percent to 0.65 percent.
Is the income amount guaranteed? No. If the asset allocation strategy doesn't work out right, you might wind up with less. The payouts
are expected to keep pace with inflation, and the payment amounts are expected to increase as the fund approaches its horizon date,
but there are no guarantees.
Insurance annuity products come
with guarantees and they also generally come with
higher price tags and give you less control over
your assets. You can access your money in the
Fidelity funds at whim.
Vanguard recently announced plans
to launch three funds that are designed to generate
regular payments, too. As is the case with the
Fidelity funds, they use a funds-of-funds approach.
Vanguard Managed Payout Growth Focus, Managed
Payout Growth and Distribution, and Managed Payout
Distribution Focus will annually distribute 3
percent, 5 percent and 7 percent, respectively.
But rather than deplete assets by a set target
date, these funds are designed to preserve capital
at the same time. Their estimated annual expense
ratio is expected to range from 0.57 to 0.58 percent
-- higher than its original estimate of 0.34 percent.
Again, there are no guarantees. The payouts are adjusted each year, based on fund performance over the previous three years.
We all know by now that life offers few guarantees. Nevertheless,
these funds provide boomers with more options
as we confront the most difficult financial challenge
yet. It's something we have to get right, lest
we live out our own personal horror stories.
Longtime financial journalist
Barbara Mlotek Whelehan earned a certificate of
specialization in financial planning. If you have
a comment or suggestion about this column, write
to Boomer
Bucks.
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